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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Aaron Simpson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1490

Brad TavaresvsAaron SimpsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · Saturday, July 2, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Aaron Simpson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Tavares: Well-roundedvsAaron Simpson: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Brad Tavares wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Aaron Simpson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Tavares at +205 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Brad Tavares

Red Corner

Aaron Simpson

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-245

(71%)

1481

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Aaron Simpson

oldest →

vs Mario Miranda · Mar 11

vs Eric Schafer · Oct 11

vs Ronny Markes · Feb 12

vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 12

KOvs Mike Pierce · Oct 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad TavaresMetricAaron Simpson

3.41

Strikes / min

3.60

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

54%

Strike defense

56%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

3.78

80%

Takedown defense

83%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking+1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad TavaresAaron Simpson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Tavares(10 fights)Aaron Simpson(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.4|Blue +9.4

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad TavaresTargetAaron Simpson

By target zone

21% acc · 38%

Head

43% acc · 30%

83% acc · 38%

Body

88% acc · 16%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

82% acc · 53%

By position

35% acc · 69%

Distance

38% acc · 19%

57% acc · 31%

Clinch

76% acc · 74%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Tavares rounds

even

Aaron Simpson rounds

Round 1Aaron Simpson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:48Control

Round 2Aaron Simpson edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:56

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:25Control

Round 3Aaron Simpson edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:02

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 33

Sig Strikes

43 / 66

36%

Sig Str %

67.3%

41 / 62

Total Strikes

127 / 156

1 / 4

TDs

2 / 15

25%

TD %

9.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:58

Ctrl Time

11:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Aaron Simpson	19 / 31	39 / 56	0 / 6	0
1	Brad Tavares	8 / 15	15 / 22	0 / 0	0
2	Aaron Simpson	13 / 15	49 / 51	0 / 2	2
2	Brad Tavares	2 / 7	10 / 15	1 / 2	0
3	Aaron Simpson	11 / 20	39 / 49	2 / 7	0
3	Brad Tavares	3 / 11	16 / 25	0 / 2	0

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28

Aaron Simpson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8