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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Renato Moicano won · SUB R1
Elo1441
Elo1523
Renato Moicano

Brad RiddellvsRenato MoicanoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 12, 2022New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Renato Moicano won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:20

Style matchupBrad Riddell: Pressure fightervsRenato Moicano: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Brad Riddell wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Renato Moicano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Riddell at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Renato Moicano threatens submissions; Brad Riddell has lost 67% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Riddell
Red Corner
VS
Renato Moicano
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
1441
Elo
1523
34
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad RiddellL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Magomed Mustafaev · Feb 20
W
vs Alex Da Silva · Sep 20
W
vs Drew Dober · Jun 21
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Dec 21
L
SUBvs Jalin Turner · Jul 22
latest
Renato Moicano
oldest →
W
KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24
W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24
L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25
L
vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25
W
SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad RiddellMetricRenato Moicano
4.71
Strikes / min
4.10
3.53
Strikes absorbed / min
3.55
53%
Strike defense
59%
1.77
TDs / 15 min
1.68
63%
Takedown defense
64%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.18evenly matched on net striking+0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1536 vs 1552Strikes4.7 vs 4.4Takedowns1.8 vs 1.9Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.60Form-0.4 vs 0.1
Brad RiddellRenato Moicano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Brad Riddell(7 fights)Renato Moicano(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -81.6|Blue +81.6
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -119.0|Blue +119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad RiddellTargetRenato Moicano

By target zone

6
38% acc · 43%
Head
10
31% acc · 100%
6
86% acc · 43%
Body
0
2
100% acc · 14%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

14
56% acc · 100%
Distance
10
30% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Brad Riddell rounds
0
even
0
Renato Moicano rounds
Round 1Brad Riddell edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:14
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:34Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
14 / 25
Sig Strikes
10 / 33
56%
Sig Str %
30%
14 / 25
Total Strikes
11 / 35
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:14
Ctrl Time
0:34

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Renato Moicano10 / 3311 / 350 / 11
1Brad Riddell14 / 2514 / 250 / 10

Brad Riddell

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights20