← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Fiziev won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1441

Elo1509

Brad RiddellvsRafael FizievUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · Saturday, December 4, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Fiziev won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:20

Style matchupBrad Riddell: Pressure fightervsRafael Fiziev: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Rafael Fiziev wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Rafael Fiziev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Fiziev at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Fiziev has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Fiziev (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Brad Riddell

Red Corner

Rafael Fiziev

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1441

Elo

1509

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad RiddellL2 streak

oldest →

vs Magomed Mustafaev · Feb 20

vs Alex Da Silva · Sep 20

vs Drew Dober · Jun 21

SUBvs Jalin Turner · Jul 22

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Nov 22

latest

Rafael Fiziev

oldest →

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Sep 23

vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 25

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Jun 25

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jan 26

KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad RiddellMetricRafael Fiziev

4.71

Strikes / min

4.71

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

4.84

53%

Strike defense

49%

1.77

TDs / 15 min

0.83

63%

Takedown defense

90%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.18Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad RiddellRafael Fiziev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Riddell(7 fights)Rafael Fiziev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -68.3|Blue +68.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad RiddellTargetRafael Fiziev

By target zone

32% acc · 39%

Head

46% acc · 55%

77% acc · 34%

Body

73% acc · 33%

94% acc · 27%

Leg

53% acc · 12%

By position

52% acc · 100%

Distance

53% acc · 97%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Riddell rounds

even

Rafael Fiziev rounds

Round 1Brad Riddell edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rafael Fiziev edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Brad Riddell edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:14

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 115

Sig Strikes

66 / 123

53.7%

Sig Str %

54%

62 / 118

Total Strikes

66 / 123

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

16.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Fiziev	19 / 35	19 / 35	0 / 0
1	Brad Riddell	21 / 41	21 / 41	0 / 0
2	Rafael Fiziev	30 / 59	30 / 59	0 / 0
2	Brad Riddell	22 / 50	23 / 51	0 / 1
3	Rafael Fiziev	17 / 29	17 / 29	0 / 0
3	Brad Riddell	16 / 24	18 / 26	1 / 3

Brad Riddell

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Rafael Fiziev

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights13