← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Brad Riddell won · S-DEC R3

Elo1441

Elo1492

Brad RiddellvsMagomed MustafaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · Saturday, February 22, 2020Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Brad Riddell won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Riddell: Pressure fightervsMagomed Mustafaev: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Brad Riddell wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Brad Riddell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Riddell at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Riddell enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Brad Riddell has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Brad Riddell has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Riddell

Red Corner

Magomed Mustafaev

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1441

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad RiddellL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Da Silva · Sep 20

vs Drew Dober · Jun 21

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Dec 21

SUBvs Jalin Turner · Jul 22

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Nov 22

latest

Magomed Mustafaev

oldest →

KOvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 15

KOvs Joe Proctor · Dec 15

SUBvs Kevin Lee · Nov 16

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad RiddellMetricMagomed Mustafaev

4.71

Strikes / min

2.59

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

2.68

53%

Strike defense

41%

1.77

TDs / 15 min

3.31

63%

Takedown defense

23%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.18Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap-0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad RiddellMagomed Mustafaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Riddell(7 fights)Magomed Mustafaev(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -51.2|Blue +51.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -168.0|Blue +168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad RiddellTargetMagomed Mustafaev

By target zone

43% acc · 55%

Head

43% acc · 36%

71% acc · 32%

Body

64% acc · 25%

83% acc · 13%

Leg

92% acc · 39%

By position

44% acc · 53%

Distance

44% acc · 43%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

80% acc · 29%

63% acc · 39%

Ground

89% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Riddell rounds

even

Magomed Mustafaev rounds

Round 1Magomed Mustafaev edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:36

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:05Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Magomed Mustafaev edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:02

12Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:00Control

Round 3Brad Riddell edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control1:24

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:55Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 72

Sig Strikes

28 / 46

55%

Sig Str %

60.3%

60 / 97

Total Strikes

36 / 56

1 / 1

TDs

8 / 11

100%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

2:02

Ctrl Time

7:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Magomed Mustafaev	12 / 17	15 / 20	4 / 4
1	Brad Riddell	3 / 5	9 / 11	0 / 0
2	Magomed Mustafaev	12 / 22	15 / 25	3 / 3
2	Brad Riddell	17 / 29	20 / 32	0 / 0
3	Magomed Mustafaev	4 / 7	6 / 11	1 / 4
3	Brad Riddell	18 / 38	31 / 54	1 / 1

Brad Riddell

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Magomed Mustafaev

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5