Lightweight

3 Rounds

Brad Riddell won · U-DEC R3

Elo1441

Elo1490

Brad RiddellvsJamie MullarkeyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · Saturday, October 5, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Brad Riddell won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Riddell: Pressure fightervsJamie Mullarkey: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Brad Riddell wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Brad Riddell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Riddell at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Riddell enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Riddell

Red Corner

Jamie Mullarkey

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1441

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad RiddellL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Da Silva · Sep 20

vs Drew Dober · Jun 21

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Dec 21

SUBvs Jalin Turner · Jul 22

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Nov 22

latest

Jamie Mullarkey

oldest →

vs John Makdessi · Sep 23

KOvs Nasrat Haqparast · Dec 23

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · May 24

vs Rolando Bedoya · Sep 25

SUBvs Quillan Salkilld · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad RiddellMetricJamie Mullarkey

4.71

Strikes / min

4.10

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

4.28

53%

Strike defense

54%

1.77

TDs / 15 min

2.46

63%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.18Δ 1.36 — meaningful gap-0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad RiddellJamie Mullarkey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Riddell(7 fights)Jamie Mullarkey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad RiddellTargetJamie Mullarkey

By target zone

54% acc · 77%

Head

30% acc · 69%

88% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 11%

88% acc · 8%

Leg

88% acc · 19%

By position

52% acc · 69%

Distance

38% acc · 97%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

86% acc · 27%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Riddell rounds

even

Jamie Mullarkey rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:15

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:58Control

Round 3Brad Riddell edged it

Sig. strikes61

Takedowns1

Control1:46

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

91 / 153

Sig Strikes

36 / 95

53.7%

Sig Str %

39.3%

104 / 167

Total Strikes

41 / 100

1 / 1

TDs

3 / 15

100%

TD %

13.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:01

Ctrl Time

3:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jamie Mullarkey	13 / 38	14 / 39	0 / 1	0
1	Brad Riddell	13 / 35	13 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Jamie Mullarkey	8 / 17	10 / 19	2 / 8	0
2	Brad Riddell	17 / 31	20 / 34	0 / 0	0
3	Jamie Mullarkey	15 / 40	17 / 42	1 / 6	1
3	Brad Riddell	61 / 87	71 / 98	1 / 1	0

Brad Riddell

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Jamie Mullarkey

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights13