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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jalin Turner won · SUB R1
Elo1441
Elo1507
Jalin Turner editorial illustration

Brad RiddellvsJalin TurnerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Saturday, July 2, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jalin Turner won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:45

Style matchupBrad Riddell: Pressure fightervsJalin Turner: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jalin Turner wins(66.0%)

Actual result: Jalin Turner wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jalin Turner at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Brad Riddell has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jalin Turner (53.5%).
  • Jalin Turner has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Riddell
Red Corner
VS
Jalin Turner
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
1441
Elo
1507
34
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
6'3"
180.34 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad RiddellL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Magomed Mustafaev · Feb 20
W
vs Alex Da Silva · Sep 20
W
vs Drew Dober · Jun 21
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Dec 21
L
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Nov 22
latest
Jalin Turner
oldest →
L
vs Dan Hooker · Jul 23
W
KOvs King Green · Dec 23
L
KOvs Renato Moicano · Apr 24
L
SUBvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Mar 25
W
KOvs Edson Barboza · Dec 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad RiddellMetricJalin Turner
4.71
Strikes / min
5.79
3.53
Strikes absorbed / min
4.54
53%
Strike defense
41%
1.77
TDs / 15 min
0.75
63%
Takedown defense
75%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.18evenly matched on net striking+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1554 vs 1555Strikes4.7 vs 5.6Takedowns1.8 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.10Form0.1 vs 0.9
Brad RiddellJalin Turner

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Brad Riddell(7 fights)Jalin Turner(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -65.9|Blue +65.9
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad RiddellTargetJalin Turner

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
1
50% acc · 33%
0
Body
1
50% acc · 33%
2
100% acc · 100%
Leg
1
100% acc · 33%

By position

2
67% acc · 100%
Distance
3
60% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Brad Riddell rounds
1
even
0
Jalin Turner rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
2 / 3
Sig Strikes
3 / 5
66%
Sig Str %
60%
2 / 3
Total Strikes
3 / 5
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jalin Turner3 / 53 / 50 / 01
1Brad Riddell2 / 32 / 30 / 10

Brad Riddell

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7

Jalin Turner

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights14