Lightweight

3 Rounds

Brad Riddell won · U-DEC

Elo1441

Elo1426

Brad RiddellvsAlex Da SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Saturday, September 26, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Brad Riddell won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Brad Riddell wins(74.0%)

Actual result: Brad Riddell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Riddell at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Riddell enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Riddell

Red Corner

Alex Da Silva

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+253

(28%)

1441

Elo

1426

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad RiddellL3 streak

oldest →

vs Magomed Mustafaev · Feb 20

vs Drew Dober · Jun 21

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Dec 21

SUBvs Jalin Turner · Jul 22

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Nov 22

latest

Alex Da Silva

oldest →

SUBvs Alexander Yakovlev · Apr 19

vs Kazula Vargas · Aug 19

vs Joe Solecki · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad RiddellMetricAlex Da Silva

4.71

Strikes / min

2.14

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

2.52

53%

Strike defense

56%

1.77

TDs / 15 min

1.97

63%

Takedown defense

76%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.18Δ 1.56 — meaningful gap-0.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad RiddellAlex Da Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Riddell(7 fights)Alex Da Silva(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.5|Blue -14.5

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad RiddellTargetAlex Da Silva

By target zone

33% acc · 70%

Head

38% acc · 65%

81% acc · 19%

Body

83% acc · 19%

88% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

39% acc · 91%

Distance

47% acc · 91%

71% acc · 7%

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Riddell rounds

even

Alex Da Silva rounds

Round 1Alex Da Silva edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:18

13Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:22Control

Round 2Brad Riddell edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:29

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:15Control

Round 3Brad Riddell edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:37

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 166

Sig Strikes

54 / 112

39.7%

Sig Str %

50.7%

86 / 185

Total Strikes

70 / 133

1 / 6

TDs

3 / 9

11%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:24

Ctrl Time

5:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Da Silva	13 / 20	19 / 30	3 / 3	1
1	Brad Riddell	7 / 18	13 / 24	0 / 1	0
2	Alex Da Silva	18 / 43	22 / 48	0 / 3	0
2	Brad Riddell	25 / 59	37 / 71	1 / 3	0
3	Alex Da Silva	23 / 49	29 / 55	0 / 3	0
3	Brad Riddell	35 / 89	36 / 90	0 / 2	0

Brad Riddell

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Alex Da Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4