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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Brad Pickett won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1360

Elo1355

Brad PickettvsYves JabouinUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · Saturday, September 29, 2012Nottingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Brad Pickett won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:40

Style matchupBrad Pickett: WrestlervsYves Jabouin: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Yves Jabouin wins(68.3%)

Actual result: Brad Pickett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yves Jabouin at +146 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Pickett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Yves Jabouin has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Pickett

Red Corner

Yves Jabouin

Blue Corner

-156

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+146

(41%)

1360

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad PickettL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thomas Almeida · Jul 15

vs Francisco Rivera · Feb 16

SUBvs Iuri Alcantara · Oct 16

vs Urijah Faber · Dec 16

KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 17

latest

Yves JabouinL2 streak

oldest →

vs Dustin Pague · Jun 13

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Jan 14

vs Mike Easton · Jun 14

KOvs Thomas Almeida · Apr 15

SUBvs Felipe Arantes · Aug 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad PickettMetricYves Jabouin

3.02

Strikes / min

3.06

4.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.93

55%

Strike defense

62%

2.47

TDs / 15 min

1.94

58%

Takedown defense

82%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.61Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad PickettYves Jabouin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Pickett(10 fights)Yves Jabouin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.5|Blue -4.5

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +31.0|Blue -31.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad PickettTargetYves Jabouin

By target zone

21% acc · 57%

Head

34% acc · 58%

60% acc · 21%

Body

78% acc · 27%

75% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

26% acc · 86%

Distance

46% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Pickett rounds

even

Yves Jabouin rounds

Round 1Yves Jabouin edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 48

Sig Strikes

26 / 57

29%

Sig Str %

45%

14 / 48

Total Strikes

26 / 57

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yves Jabouin	26 / 57	26 / 57	0 / 0	0
1	Brad Pickett	14 / 48	14 / 48	0 / 1	0

Brad Pickett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Yves Jabouin

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10