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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Renan Barao won · SUB R1

Elo1360

Elo1378

Brad PickettvsRenan BaraoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · Saturday, November 5, 2011Birmingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Renan Barao won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:09

Style matchupBrad Pickett: WrestlervsRenan Barao: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(84.0%)

Actual result: Renan Barao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renan Barao at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Pickett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Renan Barao has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Pickett

Red Corner

Renan Barao

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1360

Elo

1378

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad PickettL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thomas Almeida · Jul 15

vs Francisco Rivera · Feb 16

SUBvs Iuri Alcantara · Oct 16

vs Urijah Faber · Dec 16

KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 17

latest

Renan BaraoL5 streak

oldest →

vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17

vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18

vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18

KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad PickettMetricRenan Barao

3.02

Strikes / min

3.78

4.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

55%

Strike defense

57%

2.47

TDs / 15 min

1.49

58%

Takedown defense

91%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.61Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad PickettRenan Barao

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Pickett(10 fights)Renan Barao(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.2|Blue +18.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad PickettTargetRenan Barao

By target zone

18% acc · 90%

Head

35% acc · 78%

17% acc · 10%

Body

33% acc · 8%

Leg

71% acc · 14%

By position

18% acc · 100%

Distance

39% acc · 89%

Clinch

Ground

29% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Pickett rounds

even

Renan Barao rounds

Round 1Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 56

Sig Strikes

37 / 98

17%

Sig Str %

37%

10 / 56

Total Strikes

38 / 99

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Renan Barao	37 / 98	38 / 99	0 / 1	1
1	Brad Pickett	10 / 56	10 / 56	0 / 0	0

Brad Pickett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17