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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Michael McDonald won · SUB R2

Elo1360

Elo1491

Brad PickettvsMichael McDonaldUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 17, 2013Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Michael McDonald won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:43

Style matchupBrad Pickett: WrestlervsMichael McDonald: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Michael McDonald wins(54.0%)

Actual result: Michael McDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael McDonald at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Pickett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Pickett

Red Corner

Michael McDonald

Blue Corner

+290

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1360

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad PickettL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thomas Almeida · Jul 15

vs Francisco Rivera · Feb 16

SUBvs Iuri Alcantara · Oct 16

vs Urijah Faber · Dec 16

KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 17

latest

Michael McDonald

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Torres · Apr 12

SUBvs Renan Barao · Feb 13

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 13

SUBvs Masanori Kanehara · Jan 16

KOvs John Lineker · Jul 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad PickettMetricMichael McDonald

3.02

Strikes / min

2.69

4.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

55%

Strike defense

57%

2.47

TDs / 15 min

1.09

58%

Takedown defense

52%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.61Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad PickettMichael McDonald

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Pickett(10 fights)Michael McDonald(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -130.9|Blue +130.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad PickettTargetMichael McDonald

By target zone

22% acc · 94%

Head

56% acc · 86%

0% acc

Body

80% acc · 8%

33% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

19% acc · 76%

Distance

59% acc · 84%

0% acc

Clinch

56% acc · 10%

40% acc · 24%

Ground

60% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Pickett rounds

even

Michael McDonald rounds

Round 1Michael McDonald edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

2Knockdowns

Round 2Brad Pickett edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:21

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 78

Sig Strikes

51 / 87

21%

Sig Str %

55%

61 / 124

Total Strikes

54 / 90

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:21

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael McDonald	42 / 69	45 / 72	0 / 1	0
1	Brad Pickett	11 / 47	12 / 48	0 / 0	0
2	Michael McDonald	9 / 18	9 / 18	0 / 0	2
2	Brad Pickett	6 / 31	49 / 76	1 / 1	0

Brad Pickett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Michael McDonald

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9