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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Marlon Vera won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1360

Elo1475

Brad PickettvsMarlon VeraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · Saturday, March 18, 2017London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Marlon Vera won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:50

Style matchupBrad Pickett: WrestlervsMarlon Vera: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Brad Pickett wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Marlon Vera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Pickett at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Marlon Vera (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Brad Pickett

Red Corner

Marlon Vera

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1360

Elo

1475

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad PickettL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chico Camus · Nov 14

KOvs Thomas Almeida · Jul 15

vs Francisco Rivera · Feb 16

SUBvs Iuri Alcantara · Oct 16

vs Urijah Faber · Dec 16

latest

Marlon VeraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23

vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25

vs David Martinez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad PickettMetricMarlon Vera

3.02

Strikes / min

4.18

4.63

Strikes absorbed / min

5.34

55%

Strike defense

50%

2.47

TDs / 15 min

0.47

58%

Takedown defense

71%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.61evenly matched on net striking-1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad PickettMarlon Vera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Pickett(10 fights)Marlon Vera(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -114.9|Blue +114.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad PickettTargetMarlon Vera

By target zone

45% acc · 82%

Head

41% acc · 58%

57% acc · 8%

Body

38% acc · 13%

38% acc · 10%

Leg

83% acc · 28%

By position

38% acc · 75%

Distance

45% acc · 88%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

63% acc · 7%

100% acc · 24%

Ground

75% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Pickett rounds

even

Marlon Vera rounds

Round 1Marlon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:52

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Brad Pickett edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control2:40

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Marlon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 113

Sig Strikes

67 / 143

46.7%

Sig Str %

46.7%

65 / 132

Total Strikes

72 / 149

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

66.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:32

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marlon Vera	24 / 50	24 / 50	0 / 0
1	Brad Pickett	17 / 35	17 / 35	1 / 3
2	Marlon Vera	12 / 26	17 / 32	0 / 0
2	Brad Pickett	17 / 29	30 / 46	1 / 1
3	Marlon Vera	31 / 67	31 / 67	0 / 0
3	Brad Pickett	17 / 49	18 / 51	0 / 0

Brad Pickett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26