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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Iuri Alcantara won · SUB R1
Elo1360
Brad Pickett
Elo1491

Brad PickettvsIuri AlcantaraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · Saturday, October 8, 2016Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Iuri Alcantara won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:59

Style matchupBrad Pickett: WrestlervsIuri Alcantara: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Iuri Alcantara wins(52.2%)

Actual result: Iuri Alcantara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Iuri Alcantara at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Iuri Alcantara (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Brad Pickett
Red Corner
VS
Iuri Alcantara
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
1360
Elo
1491
47
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'9"
172.72 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad PickettL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Chico Camus · Nov 14
L
KOvs Thomas Almeida · Jul 15
W
vs Francisco Rivera · Feb 16
L
vs Urijah Faber · Dec 16
L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 17
latest
Iuri Alcantara
oldest →
W
SUBvs Luke Sanders · Mar 17
L
SUBvs Brian Kelleher · Jun 17
L
vs Alejandro Perez · Dec 17
W
KOvs Joe Soto · Feb 18
L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad PickettMetricIuri Alcantara
3.02
Strikes / min
2.72
4.63
Strikes absorbed / min
2.79
55%
Strike defense
49%
2.47
TDs / 15 min
1.44
58%
Takedown defense
60%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.61Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1489 vs 1539Strikes35.9 vs 28.9Takedowns1.6 vs 1.2Sub Atts0.18 vs 0.42Form0.1 vs -0.1
Brad PickettIuri Alcantara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Brad Pickett(10 fights)Iuri Alcantara(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -131.5|Blue +131.5
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad PickettTargetIuri Alcantara

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
22
67% acc · 85%
1
100% acc · 100%
Body
4
67% acc · 15%
0
0% acc
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
10
48% acc · 38%
1
100% acc · 100%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 4%
0
Ground
15
88% acc · 58%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Brad Pickett rounds
0
even
1
Iuri Alcantara rounds
Round 1Iuri Alcantara edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:11
Knockdowns0
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:29Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
1 / 3
Sig Strikes
26 / 39
33%
Sig Str %
66%
1 / 3
Total Strikes
26 / 39
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
0:11
Ctrl Time
0:29

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Iuri Alcantara26 / 3926 / 390 / 02
1Brad Pickett1 / 31 / 30 / 00

Brad Pickett

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights14

Iuri Alcantara

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights17