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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ian McCall won · U-DEC R3

Elo1360

Elo1490

Brad PickettvsIan McCallUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · Saturday, July 19, 2014Dublin, Leinster, Ireland

Official fight result

Ian McCall won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Pickett: WrestlervsIan McCall: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Brad Pickett wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Ian McCall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Pickett at +149 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Pickett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ian McCall has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ian McCall has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Brad Pickett has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Pickett

Red Corner

Ian McCall

Blue Corner

+149

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-159

(61%)

1360

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad PickettL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thomas Almeida · Jul 15

vs Francisco Rivera · Feb 16

SUBvs Iuri Alcantara · Oct 16

vs Urijah Faber · Dec 16

KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 17

latest

Ian McCall

oldest →

vs Demetrious Johnson · Jun 12

vs Joseph Benavidez · Feb 13

vs Iliarde Santos · Aug 13

vs John Lineker · Jan 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad PickettMetricIan McCall

3.02

Strikes / min

3.59

4.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

55%

Strike defense

67%

2.47

TDs / 15 min

2.08

58%

Takedown defense

88%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.61Δ 1.95 — meaningful gap+0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad PickettIan McCall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Pickett(10 fights)Ian McCall(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -130.7|Blue +130.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -217.0|Blue +217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad PickettTargetIan McCall

By target zone

19% acc · 68%

Head

38% acc · 59%

36% acc · 23%

Body

72% acc · 32%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

83% acc · 9%

By position

13% acc · 45%

Distance

36% acc · 57%

63% acc · 55%

Clinch

83% acc · 34%

Ground

83% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Pickett rounds

even

Ian McCall rounds

Round 1Ian McCall edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:46

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Ian McCall edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:14

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:52Control

Round 3Ian McCall edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:32

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 97

Sig Strikes

56 / 119

22.3%

Sig Str %

47%

29 / 105

Total Strikes

112 / 176

0 / 10

TDs

3 / 7

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

1:32

Ctrl Time

2:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ian McCall	18 / 43	31 / 56	0 / 1
1	Brad Pickett	9 / 36	10 / 38	0 / 3
2	Ian McCall	19 / 38	30 / 49	2 / 3
2	Brad Pickett	6 / 31	8 / 33	0 / 5
3	Ian McCall	19 / 38	51 / 71	1 / 3
3	Brad Pickett	7 / 30	11 / 34	0 / 2

Brad Pickett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Ian McCall

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights5