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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Eddie Wineland won · S-DEC R3
Elo1360
Brad Pickett
Elo1427
Eddie Wineland

Brad PickettvsEddie WinelandUFC Prediction Result

UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · Saturday, December 29, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Eddie Wineland won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Pickett: WrestlervsEddie Wineland: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Brad Pickett wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Eddie Wineland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Pickett at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Brad Pickett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Eddie Wineland enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Eddie Wineland has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Eddie Wineland has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Pickett
Red Corner
VS
Eddie Wineland
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
1360
Elo
1427
47
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad PickettL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Thomas Almeida · Jul 15
W
vs Francisco Rivera · Feb 16
L
SUBvs Iuri Alcantara · Oct 16
L
vs Urijah Faber · Dec 16
L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 17
latest
Eddie WinelandL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Alejandro Perez · Jul 18
W
KOvs Grigorii Popov · Jun 19
L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 20
L
KOvs John Castaneda · Feb 21
L
KOvs Cody Stamann · Jun 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad PickettMetricEddie Wineland
3.02
Strikes / min
3.40
4.63
Strikes absorbed / min
3.76
55%
Strike defense
68%
2.47
TDs / 15 min
0.34
58%
Takedown defense
86%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.61Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1488Strikes20.0 vs 32.0Takedowns1.3 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.00Form0.6 vs 0.2
Brad PickettEddie Wineland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Brad Pickett(10 fights)Eddie Wineland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -67.8|Blue +67.8
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -113.0|Blue +113.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad PickettTargetEddie Wineland

By target zone

33
21% acc · 49%
Head
83
30% acc · 92%
16
48% acc · 24%
Body
7
39% acc · 8%
18
72% acc · 27%
Leg
0

By position

67
32% acc · 100%
Distance
90
31% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Brad Pickett rounds
0
even
3
Eddie Wineland rounds
Round 1Eddie Wineland edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns0
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Eddie Wineland edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Eddie Wineland edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
67 / 212
Sig Strikes
90 / 294
30.7%
Sig Str %
29.7%
67 / 212
Total Strikes
90 / 294
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Eddie Wineland28 / 9728 / 970 / 10
1Brad Pickett19 / 6619 / 660 / 00
2Eddie Wineland24 / 9424 / 940 / 00
2Brad Pickett19 / 6419 / 640 / 00
3Eddie Wineland38 / 10338 / 1030 / 10
3Brad Pickett29 / 8229 / 820 / 00

Brad Pickett

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights14

Eddie Wineland

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights16