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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Brad Pickett won · SUB R2

Elo1360

Elo1352

Brad PickettvsDamacio PageUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · Saturday, April 14, 2012Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Brad Pickett won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:05

Style matchupBrad Pickett: WrestlervsDamacio Page: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Damacio Page wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Brad Pickett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Damacio Page at +255 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Pickett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Brad Pickett has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Pickett

Red Corner

Damacio Page

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1360

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad PickettL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thomas Almeida · Jul 15

vs Francisco Rivera · Feb 16

SUBvs Iuri Alcantara · Oct 16

vs Urijah Faber · Dec 16

KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 17

latest

Damacio PageL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brian Bowles · Mar 11

SUBvs Alex Caceres · Jul 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad PickettMetricDamacio Page

3.02

Strikes / min

2.05

4.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.47

55%

Strike defense

51%

2.47

TDs / 15 min

2.63

58%

Takedown defense

23%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.61Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap-0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad PickettDamacio Page

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Pickett(10 fights)Damacio Page(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.1|Blue -8.1

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -247.0|Blue +247.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad PickettTargetDamacio Page

By target zone

53% acc · 94%

Head

41% acc · 78%

50% acc · 3%

Body

33% acc · 17%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

46% acc · 31%

Distance

36% acc · 70%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

50% acc · 17%

60% acc · 67%

Ground

75% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Pickett rounds

even

Damacio Page rounds

Round 1Brad Pickett edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns4

Control3:13

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Brad Pickett edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control2:25

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 67

Sig Strikes

23 / 57

56%

Sig Str %

41%

65 / 101

Total Strikes

34 / 70

4 / 5

TDs

1 / 4

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

5:38

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Damacio Page	13 / 35	19 / 42	1 / 1	1
1	Brad Pickett	16 / 39	32 / 58	4 / 4	0
2	Damacio Page	10 / 22	15 / 28	0 / 3	0
2	Brad Pickett	20 / 28	33 / 43	0 / 1	1

Brad Pickett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Damacio Page

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3