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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Merab Dvalishvili won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1542

Brad KatonavsMerab DvalishviliUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · Saturday, May 4, 2019Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Merab Dvalishvili won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Katona: Pressure fightervsMerab Dvalishvili: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Brad Katona wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Merab Dvalishvili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Katona at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Merab Dvalishvili has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Merab Dvalishvili has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Katona

Red Corner

Merab Dvalishvili

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1491

Elo

1542

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

162.56 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad KatonaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cody Gibson · Aug 23

vs Garrett Armfield · Jan 24

vs Jesse Butler · Jun 24

vs Jean Matsumoto · Oct 24

KOvs Bekzat Almakhan · May 25

latest

Merab Dvalishvili

oldest →

vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25

SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25

vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25

vs Petr Yan · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad KatonaMetricMerab Dvalishvili

4.81

Strikes / min

4.42

4.75

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

50%

Strike defense

54%

1.86

TDs / 15 min

5.97

61%

Takedown defense

76%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06Δ 1.56 — meaningful gap+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad KatonaMerab Dvalishvili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Katona(9 fights)Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -51.1|Blue +51.1

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad KatonaTargetMerab Dvalishvili

By target zone

51% acc · 66%

Head

51% acc · 78%

80% acc · 13%

Body

60% acc · 11%

70% acc · 22%

Leg

86% acc · 11%

By position

47% acc · 53%

Distance

37% acc · 44%

75% acc · 38%

Clinch

80% acc · 7%

75% acc · 9%

Ground

84% acc · 49%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Katona rounds

even

Merab Dvalishvili rounds

Round 1Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:36

25Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 2Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:20Control

Round 3Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:53Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 56

Sig Strikes

55 / 102

59%

Sig Str %

58.7%

43 / 70

Total Strikes

215 / 274

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 9

—

TD %

63.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:36

Ctrl Time

8:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Merab Dvalishvili	25 / 54	49 / 80	2 / 2
1	Brad Katona	16 / 29	20 / 34	0 / 0
2	Merab Dvalishvili	7 / 10	114 / 122	2 / 3
2	Brad Katona	8 / 11	12 / 15	0 / 0
3	Merab Dvalishvili	23 / 38	52 / 72	1 / 4
3	Brad Katona	8 / 16	11 / 21	0 / 0

Brad Katona

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights9

Merab Dvalishvili

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17