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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Brad Katona won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1369

Brad KatonavsMatthew LopezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 8, 2018Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Brad Katona won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Katona: Pressure fightervsMatthew Lopez: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Brad Katona wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Brad Katona wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Katona at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Lopez (53.5%).
Matthew Lopez has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Katona

Red Corner

Matthew Lopez

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1491

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'7"

162.56 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad KatonaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cody Gibson · Aug 23

vs Garrett Armfield · Jan 24

vs Jesse Butler · Jun 24

vs Jean Matsumoto · Oct 24

KOvs Bekzat Almakhan · May 25

latest

Matthew LopezL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Jul 16

vs Mitch Gagnon · Dec 16

KOvs Johnny Eduardo · Jun 17

KOvs Raphael Assuncao · Nov 17

KOvs Alejandro Perez · Apr 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad KatonaMetricMatthew Lopez

4.81

Strikes / min

3.13

4.75

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

50%

Strike defense

55%

1.86

TDs / 15 min

3.32

61%

Takedown defense

71%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking-0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad KatonaMatthew Lopez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Katona(9 fights)Matthew Lopez(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +122.1|Blue -122.1

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -83.0|Blue +83.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad KatonaTargetMatthew Lopez

By target zone

38% acc · 53%

Head

41% acc · 59%

46% acc · 16%

Body

55% acc · 25%

92% acc · 32%

Leg

92% acc · 16%

By position

46% acc · 88%

Distance

49% acc · 94%

67% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

83% acc · 7%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Katona rounds

even

Matthew Lopez rounds

Round 1Brad Katona edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 2Matthew Lopez edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 3Matthew Lopez edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:13

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 158

Sig Strikes

69 / 142

47.7%

Sig Str %

48.7%

86 / 170

Total Strikes

79 / 155

0 / 3

TDs

4 / 6

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matthew Lopez	28 / 56	30 / 61	1 / 2	0
1	Brad Katona	37 / 54	45 / 64	0 / 1	0
2	Matthew Lopez	18 / 35	20 / 37	2 / 2	0
2	Brad Katona	23 / 50	25 / 52	0 / 0	0
3	Matthew Lopez	23 / 51	29 / 57	1 / 2	1
3	Brad Katona	16 / 54	16 / 54	0 / 2	0

Brad Katona

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights9

Matthew Lopez

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6