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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Brad Katona won · U-DEC R3
Elo1491
Elo1491

Brad KatonavsJesse ButlerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Saturday, June 8, 2024Louisville, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Brad Katona won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Brad Katona wins(67.7%)

Actual result: Brad Katona wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Brad Katona enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Brad Katona has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Brad Katona has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Jesse Butler has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Katona
Red Corner
VS
Jesse Butler
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1491
Elo
1491
34
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'10"
162.56 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad KatonaL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Hunter Azure · Sep 19
W
vs Cody Gibson · Aug 23
L
vs Garrett Armfield · Jan 24
L
vs Jean Matsumoto · Oct 24
L
KOvs Bekzat Almakhan · May 25
latest
Jesse Butler
oldest →
L
KOvs Jim Miller · Jun 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad KatonaMetricJesse Butler
4.81
Strikes / min
2.02
4.75
Strikes absorbed / min
4.62
50%
Strike defense
39%
1.86
TDs / 15 min
0.00
61%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.06Δ 2.66 — meaningful gap-2.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1495 vs 1484Strikes4.8 vs 2.0Takedowns1.9 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.2 vs -1.0
Brad KatonaJesse Butler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Brad Katona(9 fights)Jesse Butler(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -231.0|Blue +231.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad KatonaTargetJesse Butler

By target zone

59
58% acc · 87%
Head
16
25% acc · 53%
3
50% acc · 4%
Body
9
64% acc · 30%
6
100% acc · 9%
Leg
5
100% acc · 17%

By position

27
48% acc · 40%
Distance
30
37% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 1%
Clinch
0
40
71% acc · 59%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Brad Katona rounds
0
even
0
Jesse Butler rounds
Round 1Brad Katona edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control4:31
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Brad Katona edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns2
Control4:49
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Brad Katona edged it
Sig. strikes45
Takedowns0
Control1:30
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
68 / 113
Sig Strikes
30 / 82
59.7%
Sig Str %
53%
148 / 217
Total Strikes
32 / 90
3 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
10:50
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jesse Butler7 / 118 / 160 / 00
1Brad Katona8 / 1444 / 541 / 10
2Jesse Butler2 / 32 / 30 / 00
2Brad Katona15 / 2441 / 642 / 20
3Jesse Butler21 / 6822 / 710 / 00
3Brad Katona45 / 7563 / 990 / 00

Brad Katona

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights9

Jesse Butler

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights2