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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jean Matsumoto won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1518

Brad KatonavsJean MatsumotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Saturday, October 19, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jean Matsumoto won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Katona: Pressure fightervsJean Matsumoto: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jean Matsumoto wins(73.3%)

Actual result: Jean Matsumoto wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jean Matsumoto at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jean Matsumoto has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Katona

Red Corner

Jean Matsumoto

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-205

(67%)

1491

Elo

1518

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

162.56 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad Katona

oldest →

vs Hunter Azure · Sep 19

vs Cody Gibson · Aug 23

vs Garrett Armfield · Jan 24

vs Jesse Butler · Jun 24

KOvs Bekzat Almakhan · May 25

latest

Jean Matsumoto

oldest →

SUBvs Dan Argueta · Apr 24

vs Rob Font · Feb 25

vs Miles Johns · Aug 25

vs Farid Basharat · Feb 26

DECvs Bekzat Almakhan · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad KatonaMetricJean Matsumoto

4.81

Strikes / min

5.37

4.75

Strikes absorbed / min

5.41

50%

Strike defense

47%

1.86

TDs / 15 min

3.00

61%

Takedown defense

56%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad KatonaJean Matsumoto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Katona(9 fights)Jean Matsumoto(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -26.6|Blue +26.6

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad KatonaTargetJean Matsumoto

By target zone

58% acc · 76%

Head

38% acc · 70%

92% acc · 13%

Body

60% acc · 7%

90% acc · 10%

Leg

78% acc · 24%

By position

59% acc · 82%

Distance

43% acc · 96%

100% acc · 17%

Clinch

80% acc · 4%

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Katona rounds

even

Jean Matsumoto rounds

Round 1Brad Katona edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:40

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 2Jean Matsumoto edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns1

Control0:26

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 3Brad Katona edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns2

Control2:29

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:22Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

89 / 141

Sig Strikes

89 / 201

63%

Sig Str %

44%

117 / 171

Total Strikes

109 / 223

3 / 8

TDs

1 / 7

41.5%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:35

Ctrl Time

2:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jean Matsumoto	20 / 53	24 / 57	0 / 4
1	Brad Katona	30 / 44	39 / 53	0 / 0
2	Jean Matsumoto	45 / 100	50 / 105	0 / 2
2	Brad Katona	37 / 61	46 / 70	1 / 2
3	Jean Matsumoto	24 / 48	35 / 61	1 / 1
3	Brad Katona	22 / 36	32 / 48	2 / 6

Brad Katona

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights9

Jean Matsumoto

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6