Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Garrett Armfield won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1493

Brad KatonavsGarrett ArmfieldUFC Prediction Result

UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · Saturday, January 20, 2024Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Garrett Armfield won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Katona: Pressure fightervsGarrett Armfield: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Garrett Armfield wins(65.1%)

Actual result: Garrett Armfield wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Garrett Armfield at +195 American odds

+$195 profit

$295 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Garrett Armfield has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Katona

Red Corner

Garrett Armfield

Blue Corner

-238

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1491

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

162.56 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad KatonaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Hunter Azure · Sep 19

vs Cody Gibson · Aug 23

vs Jesse Butler · Jun 24

vs Jean Matsumoto · Oct 24

KOvs Bekzat Almakhan · May 25

latest

Garrett ArmfieldL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs David Onama · Jul 22

KOvs Toshiomi Kazama · Aug 23

SUBvs Brady Hiestand · Jun 24

vs Serhiy Sidey · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad KatonaMetricGarrett Armfield

4.81

Strikes / min

5.35

4.75

Strikes absorbed / min

3.64

50%

Strike defense

56%

1.86

TDs / 15 min

1.10

61%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap+1.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad KatonaGarrett Armfield

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Katona(9 fights)Garrett Armfield(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad KatonaTargetGarrett Armfield

By target zone

36% acc · 77%

Head

56% acc · 70%

89% acc · 13%

Body

78% acc · 20%

88% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

37% acc · 72%

Distance

61% acc · 94%

61% acc · 27%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Katona rounds

even

Garrett Armfield rounds

Round 1Garrett Armfield edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:14

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Garrett Armfield edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:27

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Garrett Armfield edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control2:54

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 155

Sig Strikes

105 / 168

41.3%

Sig Str %

62%

76 / 172

Total Strikes

130 / 193

4 / 9

TDs

0 / 1

47%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:35

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Garrett Armfield	31 / 51	31 / 51	0 / 0
1	Brad Katona	20 / 48	23 / 52	1 / 2
2	Garrett Armfield	41 / 66	41 / 66	0 / 0
2	Brad Katona	25 / 66	27 / 71	1 / 4
3	Garrett Armfield	33 / 51	58 / 76	0 / 1
3	Brad Katona	19 / 41	26 / 49	2 / 3

Brad Katona

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights9

Garrett Armfield

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5