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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Brad Katona won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1458

Brad KatonavsCody GibsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Saturday, August 19, 2023Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Brad Katona won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBrad Katona: Pressure fightervsCody Gibson: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Brad Katona wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Brad Katona wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Katona at -192 American odds

+$52 profit

$152 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cody Gibson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cody Gibson has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Katona

Red Corner

Cody Gibson

Blue Corner

-192

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1491

Elo

1458

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'10"

162.56 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad KatonaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Hunter Azure · Sep 19

vs Garrett Armfield · Jan 24

vs Jesse Butler · Jun 24

vs Jean Matsumoto · Oct 24

KOvs Bekzat Almakhan · May 25

latest

Cody GibsonL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brian Kelleher · Jul 24

vs Chad Anheliger · Nov 24

SUBvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Mar 25

KOvs Aoriqileng · Oct 25

SUBvs Abdul Hussein · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad KatonaMetricCody Gibson

4.81

Strikes / min

3.63

4.75

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

50%

Strike defense

57%

1.86

TDs / 15 min

2.12

61%

Takedown defense

69%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad KatonaCody Gibson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Katona(9 fights)Cody Gibson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.5|Blue -33.5

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -1665.0|Blue +1665.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad KatonaTargetCody Gibson

By target zone

116

46% acc · 73%

Head

130

57% acc · 79%

68% acc · 16%

Body

81% acc · 13%

95% acc · 12%

Leg

92% acc · 7%

By position

127

48% acc · 79%

Distance

134

58% acc · 82%

67% acc · 21%

Clinch

86% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Katona rounds

even

Cody Gibson rounds

Round 1Cody Gibson edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

49Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Cody Gibson edged it

Sig. strikes58

Takedowns0

Control0:00

64Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Brad Katona edged it

Sig. strikes66

Takedowns0

Control0:00

51Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

160 / 311

Sig Strikes

164 / 268

50%

Sig Str %

60.7%

173 / 327

Total Strikes

169 / 273

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cody Gibson	49 / 85	49 / 85	0 / 0
1	Brad Katona	36 / 87	39 / 91	0 / 0
2	Cody Gibson	64 / 94	66 / 96	0 / 0
2	Brad Katona	58 / 108	59 / 111	0 / 2
3	Cody Gibson	51 / 89	54 / 92	0 / 1
3	Brad Katona	66 / 116	75 / 125	0 / 0

Brad Katona

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights9

Cody Gibson

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11