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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Bekzat Almakhan won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Elo1470

Brad KatonavsBekzat AlmakhanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · Saturday, May 10, 2025Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Bekzat Almakhan won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:04

Model Prediction: Brad Katona wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Bekzat Almakhan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Katona at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Bekzat Almakhan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Brad Katona has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Brad Katona has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Bekzat Almakhan has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Brad Katona
Red Corner
VS
Bekzat Almakhan
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-142
(59%)
1491
Elo
1470
34
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
162.56 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad Katona
oldest →
L
vs Hunter Azure · Sep 19
W
vs Cody Gibson · Aug 23
L
vs Garrett Armfield · Jan 24
W
vs Jesse Butler · Jun 24
L
vs Jean Matsumoto · Oct 24
latest
Bekzat AlmakhanL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 24
L
vs Aleksandre Topuria · Nov 25
L
DECvs Jean Matsumoto · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad KatonaMetricBekzat Almakhan
4.81
Strikes / min
1.61
4.75
Strikes absorbed / min
3.73
50%
Strike defense
36%
1.86
TDs / 15 min
0.00
61%
Takedown defense
41%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.06Δ 2.18 — meaningful gap-2.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1494 vs 1487Strikes4.8 vs 1.6Takedowns1.9 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.2 vs -0.9
Brad KatonaBekzat Almakhan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501468148515031520← oldermost recent →
Brad Katona(9 fights)Bekzat Almakhan(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +21.7|Blue -21.7
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -231.0|Blue +231.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad KatonaTargetBekzat Almakhan

By target zone

1
33% acc · 100%
Head
7
70% acc · 88%
0
Body
1
100% acc · 13%
0
0% acc
Leg
0

By position

1
25% acc · 100%
Distance
6
67% acc · 75%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Brad Katona rounds
0
even
1
Bekzat Almakhan rounds
Round 1Bekzat Almakhan edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
1 / 4
Sig Strikes
8 / 11
25%
Sig Str %
72%
1 / 4
Total Strikes
8 / 11
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Bekzat Almakhan8 / 118 / 110 / 00
1Brad Katona1 / 41 / 40 / 00

Brad Katona

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights9

Bekzat Almakhan

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4