← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Bolaji Oki won · U-DEC R3

Elo1470

Elo1465

Bolaji OkivsMichael Aswell Jr.UFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · Saturday, May 31, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bolaji Oki won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBolaji Oki: Pressure fightervsMichael Aswell Jr.: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Michael Aswell Jr. wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Bolaji Oki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Aswell Jr. at +460 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bolaji Oki enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Michael Aswell Jr. is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Bolaji Oki has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Bolaji Oki has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bolaji Oki has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Bolaji Oki has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Bolaji Oki

Red Corner

Michael Aswell Jr.

Blue Corner

-620

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+460

(18%)

1470

Elo

1465

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bolaji OkiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Timmy Cuamba · Feb 24

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Sep 24

KOvs Mason Jones · Sep 25

KOvs Manoel Sousa · Mar 26

latest

Michael Aswell Jr.L2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Lucas Almeida · Oct 25

vs Luke Riley · Mar 26

DECvs Gaston Bolanos · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bolaji OkiMetricMichael Aswell Jr.

6.42

Strikes / min

7.79

5.12

Strikes absorbed / min

7.43

61%

Strike defense

51%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

0.32

75%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.30evenly matched on net striking+0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bolaji OkiMichael Aswell Jr.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bolaji Oki(5 fights)Michael Aswell Jr.(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.7|Blue -4.7

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bolaji OkiTargetMichael Aswell Jr.

By target zone

38% acc · 68%

Head

34% acc · 78%

75% acc · 26%

Body

66% acc · 16%

67% acc · 6%

Leg

70% acc · 6%

By position

135

45% acc · 99%

Distance

117

38% acc · 99%

33% acc · 1%

Clinch

25% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bolaji Oki rounds

even

Michael Aswell Jr. rounds

Round 1Bolaji Oki edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Bolaji Oki edged it

Sig. strikes54

Takedowns0

Control0:00

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Michael Aswell Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control0:00

52Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

136 / 303

Sig Strikes

118 / 309

44.3%

Sig Str %

37%

136 / 303

Total Strikes

118 / 309

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Aswell Jr.	24 / 84	24 / 84	0 / 0
1	Bolaji Oki	36 / 92	36 / 92	0 / 0
2	Michael Aswell Jr.	42 / 100	42 / 100	0 / 0
2	Bolaji Oki	54 / 108	54 / 108	0 / 0
3	Michael Aswell Jr.	52 / 125	52 / 125	0 / 0
3	Bolaji Oki	46 / 103	46 / 103	0 / 0

Bolaji Oki

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

Michael Aswell Jr.

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4