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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Manoel Sousa won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1470

Elo1522

Bolaji OkivsManoel SousaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Saturday, March 14, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Manoel Sousa won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:12

Style matchupBolaji Oki: Pressure fightervsManoel Sousa: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Bolaji Oki wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Manoel Sousa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bolaji Oki at +220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Manoel Sousa is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Bolaji Oki has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Bolaji Oki has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bolaji Oki has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bolaji Oki

Red Corner

Manoel Sousa

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-270

(73%)

1470

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bolaji Oki

oldest →

vs Timmy Cuamba · Feb 24

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Sep 24

vs Michael Aswell Jr. · May 25

KOvs Mason Jones · Sep 25

latest

Manoel SousaNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bolaji OkiMetricManoel Sousa

6.42

Strikes / min

4.15

5.12

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

61%

Strike defense

51%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

0.00

75%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.30evenly matched on net striking+0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bolaji OkiManoel Sousa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bolaji Oki(5 fights)Manoel Sousa(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -52.0|Blue +52.0

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bolaji OkiTargetManoel Sousa

By target zone

38% acc · 50%

Head

32% acc · 68%

64% acc · 33%

Body

76% acc · 23%

93% acc · 17%

Leg

88% acc · 10%

By position

43% acc · 74%

Distance

39% acc · 87%

89% acc · 20%

Clinch

57% acc · 11%

63% acc · 6%

Ground

25% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bolaji Oki rounds

even

Manoel Sousa rounds

Round 1Bolaji Oki edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control2:51

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Bolaji Oki edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:28

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Manoel Sousa edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns0

48Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

84 / 170

Sig Strikes

71 / 179

54.7%

Sig Str %

39.3%

108 / 196

Total Strikes

86 / 196

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 3

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:23

Ctrl Time

1:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Manoel Sousa	10 / 21	23 / 35	0 / 0	1
1	Bolaji Oki	20 / 26	42 / 50	1 / 1	0
2	Manoel Sousa	13 / 66	15 / 68	0 / 2	0
2	Bolaji Oki	32 / 72	34 / 74	0 / 1	0
3	Manoel Sousa	48 / 92	48 / 93	0 / 1	0
3	Bolaji Oki	32 / 72	32 / 72	0 / 0	0

Bolaji Oki

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

Manoel Sousa

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights1