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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sultan Aliev won · S-DEC R3

Elo1363

Elo1492

Bojan VelickovicvsSultan AlievUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · Saturday, December 17, 2016Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Sultan Aliev won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Bojan Velickovic wins(73.0%)

Actual result: Sultan Aliev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bojan Velickovic at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bojan Velickovic is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Sultan Aliev has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Sultan Aliev has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bojan Velickovic (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bojan Velickovic

Red Corner

Sultan Aliev

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1363

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bojan VelickovicL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Apr 16

KOvs Nico Musoke · May 17

vs Darren Till · Sep 17

vs Jake Matthews · Nov 17

latest

Sultan Aliev

oldest →

KOvs Kenny Robertson · Jan 15

KOvs Warlley Alves · May 18

vs Keita Nakamura · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bojan VelickovicMetricSultan Aliev

2.18

Strikes / min

1.41

2.31

Strikes absorbed / min

2.20

57%

Strike defense

56%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

1.76

55%

Takedown defense

100%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bojan VelickovicSultan Aliev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bojan Velickovic(5 fights)Sultan Aliev(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -128.9|Blue +128.9

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -442.0|Blue +442.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bojan VelickovicTargetSultan Aliev

By target zone

5% acc · 5%

Head

56% acc · 93%

53% acc · 41%

Body

80% acc · 55%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

35% acc · 77%

Distance

33% acc · 27%

100% acc · 18%

Clinch

50% acc · 13%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

90% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bojan Velickovic rounds

even

Sultan Aliev rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:01Control

Round 2Sultan Aliev edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:33Control

Round 3Sultan Aliev edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:24

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 53

Sig Strikes

15 / 26

38.3%

Sig Str %

57.7%

126 / 160

Total Strikes

86 / 105

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

9:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sultan Aliev	5 / 10	12 / 18	1 / 1	0
1	Bojan Velickovic	14 / 25	36 / 48	0 / 0	0
2	Sultan Aliev	6 / 9	29 / 36	1 / 1	0
2	Bojan Velickovic	4 / 17	46 / 61	0 / 0	1
3	Sultan Aliev	4 / 7	45 / 51	0 / 1	0
3	Bojan Velickovic	4 / 11	44 / 51	0 / 1	0

Bojan Velickovic

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights5

Sultan Aliev

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4