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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Luke Riley won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1481

Elo1569

Bogdan GradvsLuke RileyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Saturday, November 22, 2025Doha, Qatar

Official fight result

Luke Riley won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:30

Style matchupBogdan Grad: WrestlervsLuke Riley: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Luke Riley wins(50.0%)

Actual result: Luke Riley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luke Riley at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luke Riley is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Bogdan Grad has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Luke Riley has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bogdan Grad has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Bogdan Grad

Red Corner

Luke Riley

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1481

Elo

1569

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bogdan Grad

oldest →

KOvs Lucas Alexander · Feb 25

vs Muhammad Naimov · Jun 25

latest

Luke RileyW2 streak

oldest →

vs Michael Aswell Jr. · Mar 26

KOvs Kai Kamaka III · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bogdan GradMetricLuke Riley

4.06

Strikes / min

5.56

5.06

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

49%

Strike defense

64%

4.22

TDs / 15 min

0.00

75%

Takedown defense

37%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.00Δ 3.24 — meaningful gap+2.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bogdan GradLuke Riley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bogdan Grad(3 fights)Luke Riley(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -88.0|Blue +88.0

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bogdan GradTargetLuke Riley

By target zone

50% acc · 86%

Head

58% acc · 79%

100% acc · 14%

Body

50% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

20% acc · 14%

Distance

36% acc · 29%

100% acc · 29%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

67% acc · 57%

Ground

82% acc · 64%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bogdan Grad rounds

even

Luke Riley rounds

Round 1Bogdan Grad edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns4

Control3:55

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Luke Riley edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 13

Sig Strikes

14 / 23

45.5%

Sig Str %

55%

17 / 24

Total Strikes

20 / 32

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

57%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:55

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Luke Riley	3 / 7	8 / 15	0 / 0
1	Bogdan Grad	6 / 9	16 / 20	4 / 7
2	Luke Riley	11 / 16	12 / 17	0 / 0
2	Bogdan Grad	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 0

Bogdan Grad

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3

Luke Riley

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3