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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Bogdan Grad won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1481

Elo1485

Bogdan GradvsLucas AlexanderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Saturday, February 1, 2025Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Bogdan Grad won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:22

Style matchupBogdan Grad: WrestlervsLucas Alexander: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Bogdan Grad wins(78.5%)

Actual result: Bogdan Grad wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bogdan Grad at +108 American odds

+$108 profit

$208 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bogdan Grad is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Lucas Alexander has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Bogdan Grad has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bogdan Grad

Red Corner

Lucas Alexander

Blue Corner

+108

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-126

(56%)

1481

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bogdan GradL2 streak

oldest →

vs Muhammad Naimov · Jun 25

KOvs Luke Riley · Nov 25

latest

Lucas Alexander

oldest →

SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Oct 22

vs Steven Peterson · Mar 23

KOvs Jeka Saragih · Nov 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bogdan GradMetricLucas Alexander

4.06

Strikes / min

4.69

5.06

Strikes absorbed / min

2.87

49%

Strike defense

56%

4.22

TDs / 15 min

0.00

75%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.00Δ 2.82 — meaningful gap+1.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bogdan GradLucas Alexander

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bogdan Grad(3 fights)Lucas Alexander(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.6|Blue +4.6

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bogdan GradTargetLucas Alexander

By target zone

70% acc · 91%

Head

51% acc · 56%

50% acc · 2%

Body

100% acc · 21%

75% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

50% acc · 20%

Distance

64% acc · 85%

75% acc · 7%

Clinch

75% acc · 9%

77% acc · 74%

Ground

67% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bogdan Grad rounds

even

Lucas Alexander rounds

Round 1Lucas Alexander edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control1:17

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:13Control

Round 2Bogdan Grad edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns1

Control3:01

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 66

Sig Strikes

34 / 52

63%

Sig Str %

65%

59 / 86

Total Strikes

47 / 71

3 / 8

TDs

0 / 1

64%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:18

Ctrl Time

2:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lucas Alexander	15 / 23	28 / 42	0 / 1
1	Bogdan Grad	5 / 9	13 / 20	2 / 7
2	Lucas Alexander	19 / 29	19 / 29	0 / 0
2	Bogdan Grad	41 / 57	46 / 66	1 / 1

Bogdan Grad

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3

Lucas Alexander

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4