← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Lance Benoist won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1490

Bobby VoelkervsLance BenoistUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · Saturday, June 7, 2014Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

Lance Benoist won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBobby Voelker: Pressure fightervsLance Benoist: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Lance Benoist wins(65.7%)

Actual result: Lance Benoist wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lance Benoist at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bobby Voelker enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Lance Benoist has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Lance Benoist (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bobby Voelker

Red Corner

Lance Benoist

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1353

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bobby VoelkerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Patrick Cote · Mar 13

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 13

DECvs William Patolino · Dec 13

latest

Lance BenoistL2 streak

oldest →

vs Matthew Riddle · Sep 11

vs Seth Baczynski · Jun 12

vs Sean Pierson · Sep 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bobby VoelkerMetricLance Benoist

4.01

Strikes / min

3.68

5.84

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

42%

Strike defense

56%

1.04

TDs / 15 min

1.50

66%

Takedown defense

61%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.83Δ 2.81 — meaningful gap+0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bobby VoelkerLance Benoist

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bobby Voelker(4 fights)Lance Benoist(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.0|Blue +137.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -462.0|Blue +462.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bobby VoelkerTargetLance Benoist

By target zone

27% acc · 51%

Head

50% acc · 77%

75% acc · 32%

Body

80% acc · 21%

86% acc · 16%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

34% acc · 70%

Distance

43% acc · 57%

77% acc · 27%

Clinch

78% acc · 13%

25% acc · 3%

Ground

89% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bobby Voelker rounds

even

Lance Benoist rounds

Round 1Lance Benoist edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:14

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:28Control

Round 2Lance Benoist edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:28

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 3Lance Benoist edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:34

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 94

Sig Strikes

56 / 102

39.7%

Sig Str %

55.7%

74 / 138

Total Strikes

81 / 134

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 7

TD %

41.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:16

Ctrl Time

7:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lance Benoist	20 / 39	30 / 51	1 / 1
1	Bobby Voelker	10 / 31	24 / 47	0 / 0
2	Lance Benoist	19 / 37	23 / 42	1 / 4
2	Bobby Voelker	17 / 42	30 / 60	0 / 0
3	Lance Benoist	17 / 26	28 / 41	0 / 2
3	Bobby Voelker	10 / 21	20 / 31	0 / 1

Bobby Voelker

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4

Lance Benoist

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4