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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Li Jingliang won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1363

Elo1495

Bobby NashvsLi JingliangUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · Saturday, January 28, 2017Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Li Jingliang won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:45

Style matchupBobby Nash: WrestlervsLi Jingliang: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Li Jingliang wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Li Jingliang wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Li Jingliang at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Li Jingliang is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Bobby Nash has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Bobby Nash has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bobby Nash

Red Corner

Li Jingliang

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1363

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bobby NashL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Danny Roberts · Jul 17

KOvs Song Kenan · Nov 17

latest

Li JingliangL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jan 21

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 21

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 22

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Sep 22

KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bobby NashMetricLi Jingliang

3.42

Strikes / min

4.46

3.95

Strikes absorbed / min

3.95

51%

Strike defense

56%

2.37

TDs / 15 min

1.19

100%

Takedown defense

60%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.53Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap+0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bobby NashLi Jingliang

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bobby Nash(3 fights)Li Jingliang(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -132.1|Blue +132.1

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +47.4|Blue -47.4

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bobby NashTargetLi Jingliang

By target zone

28% acc · 64%

Head

37% acc · 59%

100% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 5%

79% acc · 28%

Leg

93% acc · 35%

By position

31% acc · 67%

Distance

48% acc · 86%

65% acc · 28%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

50% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bobby Nash rounds

even

Li Jingliang rounds

Round 1Bobby Nash edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control1:27

Knockdowns1

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Bobby Nash edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control2:13

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 106

Sig Strikes

37 / 75

36.5%

Sig Str %

50%

59 / 127

Total Strikes

43 / 81

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:40

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Li Jingliang	24 / 50	25 / 51	0 / 0	0
1	Bobby Nash	19 / 58	29 / 68	0 / 2	2
2	Li Jingliang	13 / 25	18 / 30	0 / 1	0
2	Bobby Nash	20 / 48	30 / 59	1 / 2	0

Bobby Nash

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3

Li Jingliang

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17