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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Fiziev won · U-DEC R3
Elo1445
Elo1509
Rafael Fiziev editorial illustration

Bobby GreenvsRafael FizievUFC Prediction Result

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Saturday, August 7, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Fiziev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rafael Fiziev wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Rafael Fiziev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Fiziev at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Fiziev (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Bobby Green
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Fiziev
Blue Corner
+235
(30%)
Vegas Odds
-300
(75%)
1445
Elo
1509
34
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'10"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bobby GreenL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Thiago Moises · Oct 20
W
KOvs Al Iaquinta · Nov 21
W
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Feb 22
L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Feb 22
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Dec 22
latest
Rafael Fiziev
oldest →
L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Sep 23
L
vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 25
W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Jun 25
L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jan 26
W
KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bobby GreenMetricRafael Fiziev
—
Strikes / min
4.71
—
Strikes absorbed / min
4.84
—
Strike defense
49%
—
TDs / 15 min
0.83
—
Takedown defense
90%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1539 vs 1542Strikes5.5 vs 5.3Takedowns1.5 vs 0.6Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 0.8
Bobby GreenRafael Fiziev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Bobby Green(10 fights)Rafael Fiziev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -63.9|Blue +63.9
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Bobby Green

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9

Rafael Fiziev

StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights13