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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Edson Barboza won · U-DEC R3
Elo1445
Elo1480
Edson Barboza

Bobby GreenvsEdson BarbozaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · Saturday, November 22, 2014Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Edson Barboza won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Bobby Green wins(64.7%)

Actual result: Edson Barboza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bobby Green at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Edson Barboza has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Bobby Green
Red Corner
VS
Edson Barboza
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
1445
Elo
1480
28
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bobby GreenL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Rafael Fiziev · Aug 21
W
KOvs Al Iaquinta · Nov 21
W
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Feb 22
L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Feb 22
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Dec 22
latest
Edson BarbozaL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23
W
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23
L
vs Lerone Murphy · May 24
L
vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25
L
KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bobby GreenMetricEdson Barboza
—
Strikes / min
4.14
—
Strikes absorbed / min
4.68
—
Strike defense
55%
—
TDs / 15 min
0.43
—
Takedown defense
73%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1572 vs 1590Strikes53.3 vs 35.8Takedowns1.0 vs 0.4Sub Atts0.25 vs 0.10Form1.0 vs 0.5
Bobby GreenEdson Barboza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Bobby Green(10 fights)Edson Barboza(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -34.4|Blue +34.4
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -10.0|Blue +10.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Bobby Green

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights32