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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Bo Nickal won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1544
Bo Nickal
Elo1492

Bo NickalvsVal WoodburnUFC Prediction Result

UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, July 8, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bo Nickal won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:38

Model Prediction: Bo Nickal wins(90.1%)

Actual result: Bo Nickal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Bo Nickal is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Val Woodburn has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Bo Nickal has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Bo Nickal has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Bo Nickal (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bo Nickal
Red Corner
VS
Val Woodburn
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1544
Elo
1492
30
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'8"
193.04 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bo NickalW2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Cody Brundage · Apr 24
W
vs Paul Craig · Nov 24
L
KOvs Reinier de Ridder · May 25
W
KOvs Rodolfo Vieira · Nov 25
W
KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Jun 26
latest
Val Woodburn
oldest →
L
vs Oban Elliott · Feb 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bo NickalMetricVal Woodburn
3.35
Strikes / min
1.60
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
4.93
59%
Strike defense
36%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
1.92
100%
Takedown defense
50%
2.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.28Δ 4.61 — meaningful gap-3.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1517 vs 1500Strikes1.6 vs 1.6Takedowns7.5 vs 1.9Sub Atts7.50 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.0
Bo NickalVal Woodburn

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Bo Nickal(7 fights)Val Woodburn(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +52.1|Blue -52.1
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Grappler Score
Red -47.6|Blue +47.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bo NickalTargetVal Woodburn

By target zone

7
70% acc · 100%
Head
2
22% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

6
67% acc · 86%
Distance
2
22% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 14%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Bo Nickal rounds
0
even
0
Val Woodburn rounds
Round 1Bo Nickal edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
7 / 10
Sig Strikes
2 / 9
70%
Sig Str %
22%
7 / 10
Total Strikes
2 / 9
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Val Woodburn2 / 92 / 90 / 00
1Bo Nickal7 / 107 / 100 / 10

Bo Nickal

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights6

Val Woodburn

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights2