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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Bo Nickal won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1544
Bo Nickal
Elo1483
Rodolfo Vieira

Bo NickalvsRodolfo VieiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · Saturday, November 15, 2025New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Bo Nickal won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:24

Style matchupBo Nickal: WrestlervsRodolfo Vieira: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Bo Nickal wins(76.4%)

Actual result: Bo Nickal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bo Nickal at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Bo Nickal has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Bo Nickal has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Bo Nickal (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bo Nickal
Red Corner
VS
Rodolfo Vieira
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
1544
Elo
1483
30
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bo Nickal
oldest →
W
KOvs Val Woodburn · Jul 23
W
SUBvs Cody Brundage · Apr 24
W
vs Paul Craig · Nov 24
L
KOvs Reinier de Ridder · May 25
W
KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Jun 26
latest
Rodolfo Vieira
oldest →
W
SUBvs Cody Brundage · Apr 23
W
SUBvs Armen Petrosyan · Feb 24
L
vs Andre Petroski · Feb 25
W
vs Tresean Gore · Aug 25
L
DECvs Eric McConico · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bo NickalMetricRodolfo Vieira
3.35
Strikes / min
3.43
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
4.28
59%
Strike defense
49%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
2.87
100%
Takedown defense
60%
2.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.28Δ 2.13 — meaningful gap-0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1548 vs 1549Strikes3.4 vs 3.5Takedowns3.1 vs 2.7Sub Atts2.50 vs 0.90Form0.1 vs 0.3
Bo NickalRodolfo Vieira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701493151515381560← oldermost recent →
Bo Nickal(7 fights)Rodolfo Vieira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +60.5|Blue -60.5
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Layoff
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bo NickalTargetRodolfo Vieira

By target zone

56
60% acc · 73%
Head
7
18% acc · 29%
13
68% acc · 17%
Body
6
50% acc · 25%
8
89% acc · 10%
Leg
11
79% acc · 46%

By position

64
62% acc · 83%
Distance
23
37% acc · 96%
7
78% acc · 9%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 4%
6
67% acc · 8%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Bo Nickal rounds
0
even
0
Rodolfo Vieira rounds
Round 1Bo Nickal edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns2
Control1:05
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:32Control
Round 2Bo Nickal edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:23
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:28Control
Round 3Bo Nickal edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
77 / 121
Sig Strikes
24 / 64
64%
Sig Str %
40.3%
94 / 143
Total Strikes
31 / 71
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 6
50%
TD %
0%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:28
Ctrl Time
1:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rodolfo Vieira7 / 1911 / 230 / 20
1Bo Nickal28 / 4637 / 602 / 21
2Rodolfo Vieira14 / 3917 / 420 / 40
2Bo Nickal38 / 5946 / 670 / 00
3Rodolfo Vieira3 / 63 / 60 / 00
3Bo Nickal11 / 1611 / 160 / 10

Bo Nickal

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights6

Rodolfo Vieira

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights11