← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Bo Nickal won · U-DEC R3

Elo1544

Elo1473

Bo NickalvsPaul CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Saturday, November 16, 2024New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Bo Nickal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBo Nickal: WrestlervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Bo Nickal wins(88.5%)

Actual result: Bo Nickal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bo Nickal at -1350 American odds

+$7 profit

$107 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Bo Nickal is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
Bo Nickal has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bo Nickal has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bo Nickal (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bo Nickal

Red Corner

Paul Craig

Blue Corner

-1350

(93%)

Vegas Odds

+800

(11%)

1544

Elo

1473

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bo NickalW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Val Woodburn · Jul 23

SUBvs Cody Brundage · Apr 24

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · May 25

KOvs Rodolfo Vieira · Nov 25

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Jun 26

latest

Paul CraigL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andre Muniz · Jul 23

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bo NickalMetricPaul Craig

3.35

Strikes / min

2.50

2.07

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

59%

Strike defense

43%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

1.43

100%

Takedown defense

35%

2.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.28Δ 1.82 — meaningful gap-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bo NickalPaul Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bo Nickal(7 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +70.8|Blue -70.8

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bo NickalTargetPaul Craig

By target zone

48% acc · 44%

Head

23% acc · 45%

81% acc · 24%

Body

61% acc · 30%

89% acc · 31%

Leg

92% acc · 26%

By position

64% acc · 100%

Distance

36% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bo Nickal rounds

even

Paul Craig rounds

Round 1Bo Nickal edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Bo Nickal edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 85

Sig Strikes

47 / 129

64%

Sig Str %

36%

54 / 85

Total Strikes

48 / 130

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paul Craig	13 / 35	14 / 36	0 / 0
1	Bo Nickal	16 / 31	16 / 31	0 / 0
2	Paul Craig	21 / 48	21 / 48	0 / 0
2	Bo Nickal	22 / 26	22 / 26	0 / 0
3	Paul Craig	13 / 46	13 / 46	0 / 0
3	Bo Nickal	16 / 28	16 / 28	0 / 0

Bo Nickal

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20