← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Bo Nickal won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1544

Elo1502

Bo NickalvsKyle DaukausUFC Prediction Result

UFC Freedom 250 · Sunday, June 14, 2026Washington, USA

Official fight result

Bo Nickal won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:34

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Kyle Daukaus

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Kyle Daukaus at +256 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Style matchupBo Nickal: WrestlervsKyle Daukaus: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Bo Nickal wins(61.7%)

Actual result: Bo Nickal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bo Nickal is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Kyle Daukaus has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Bo Nickal has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bo Nickal has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bo Nickal

Red Corner

Kyle Daukaus

Blue Corner

-331

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+256

(28%)

1544

Elo

1502

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bo Nickal

oldest →

KOvs Val Woodburn · Jul 23

SUBvs Cody Brundage · Apr 24

vs Paul Craig · Nov 24

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · May 25

KOvs Rodolfo Vieira · Nov 25

latest

Kyle DaukausW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jamie Pickett · Feb 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Jun 22

KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 22

KOvs Michel Pereira · Aug 25

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bo NickalMetricKyle Daukaus

3.35

Strikes / min

3.32

2.07

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

59%

Strike defense

42%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

2.08

100%

Takedown defense

82%

2.50

Sub atts / 15 min

2.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.28evenly matched on net striking+0.42

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bo Nickal(7 fights)Kyle Daukaus(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +41.8|Blue -41.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bo NickalTargetKyle Daukaus

By target zone

65% acc · 94%

Head

17% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

54% acc · 44%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

Clinch

82% acc · 56%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bo Nickal rounds

even

Kyle Daukaus rounds

Round 1Bo Nickal edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control3:14

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 24

Sig Strikes

2 / 7

66%

Sig Str %

28%

44 / 53

Total Strikes

26 / 31

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:14

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kyle Daukaus	2 / 7	26 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Bo Nickal	16 / 24	44 / 53	1 / 1	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Bo Nickal

Odds

-331

Market-implied probability

Kyle Daukaus 27%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Bo Nickal$130

Kyle Daukaus (model pick · research)$356

27% market-implied · model 46% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Bo Nickal

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

Kyle Daukaus

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8