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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Bo Nickal won · SUB R1

Elo1544

Elo1488

Bo NickalvsJamie PickettUFC Prediction Result

UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Saturday, March 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bo Nickal won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:54

Style matchupBo Nickal: WrestlervsJamie Pickett: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Bo Nickal wins(81.3%)

Actual result: Bo Nickal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bo Nickal at -1400 American odds

+$7 profit

$107 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jamie Pickett enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Bo Nickal has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bo Nickal (53.5%).
Jamie Pickett has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Bo Nickal

Red Corner

Jamie Pickett

Blue Corner

-1400

(93%)

Vegas Odds

+850

(11%)

1544

Elo

1488

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bo NickalW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Cody Brundage · Apr 24

vs Paul Craig · Nov 24

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · May 25

KOvs Rodolfo Vieira · Nov 25

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Jun 26

latest

Jamie PickettL4 streak

oldest →

vs Joseph Holmes · Jan 22

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Feb 22

KOvs Denis Tiuliulin · Sep 22

vs Josh Fremd · Aug 23

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bo NickalMetricJamie Pickett

3.35

Strikes / min

2.65

2.07

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

59%

Strike defense

50%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

1.26

100%

Takedown defense

67%

2.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.28Δ 2.25 — meaningful gap-0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bo NickalJamie Pickett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bo Nickal(7 fights)Jamie Pickett(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +55.4|Blue -55.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bo NickalTargetJamie Pickett

By target zone

0% acc

Head

0% acc

50% acc · 100%

Body

100% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

0% acc

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bo Nickal rounds

even

Jamie Pickett rounds

Round 1Bo Nickal edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control2:30

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 4

Sig Strikes

1 / 2

25%

Sig Str %

50%

3 / 6

Total Strikes

1 / 2

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:30

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jamie Pickett	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0
1	Bo Nickal	1 / 4	3 / 6	1 / 4	2

Bo Nickal

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

Jamie Pickett

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights9