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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Bo Nickal won · SUB R2
Elo1544
Bo Nickal
Elo1490

Bo NickalvsCody BrundageUFC Prediction Result

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Saturday, April 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bo Nickal won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:38

Model Prediction: Bo Nickal wins(84.4%)

Actual result: Bo Nickal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bo Nickal at -1600 American odds

+$6 profit

$106 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Bo Nickal has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Bo Nickal (53.5%).
  • Bo Nickal has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Bo Nickal
Red Corner
VS
Cody Brundage
Blue Corner
-1600
(94%)
Vegas Odds
+900
(10%)
1544
Elo
1490
30
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bo NickalW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Val Woodburn · Jul 23
W
vs Paul Craig · Nov 24
L
KOvs Reinier de Ridder · May 25
W
KOvs Rodolfo Vieira · Nov 25
W
KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Jun 26
latest
Cody Brundage
oldest →
D
vs Mansur Abdul-Malik · Jun 25
L
vs Eric McConico · Aug 25
L
KOvs Cam Rowston · Jan 26
L
vs Donte Johnson · Mar 26
W
KOvs Andre Petroski · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bo NickalMetricCody Brundage
3.35
Strikes / min
2.26
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
3.02
59%
Strike defense
50%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
1.88
100%
Takedown defense
68%
2.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.28Δ 2.04 — meaningful gap-0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1534 vs 1505Strikes1.6 vs 1.6Takedowns7.5 vs 2.3Sub Atts7.50 vs 0.90Form1.0 vs 0.1
Bo NickalCody Brundage

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501478150515331560← oldermost recent →
Bo Nickal(7 fights)Cody Brundage(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +54.0|Blue -54.0
Recent Form
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Layoff
Red +147.0|Blue -147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bo NickalTargetCody Brundage

By target zone

6
55% acc · 75%
Head
1
11% acc · 25%
2
100% acc · 25%
Body
3
100% acc · 75%
0
Leg
0

By position

3
60% acc · 38%
Distance
2
20% acc · 50%
0
Clinch
2
100% acc · 50%
5
63% acc · 63%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Bo Nickal rounds
0
even
0
Cody Brundage rounds
Round 1Bo Nickal edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control4:25
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 2Bo Nickal edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control3:00
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
8 / 13
Sig Strikes
4 / 12
60.5%
Sig Str %
33%
45 / 59
Total Strikes
33 / 41
3 / 6
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
7:25
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cody Brundage2 / 616 / 200 / 00
1Bo Nickal5 / 724 / 282 / 40
2Cody Brundage2 / 617 / 210 / 00
2Bo Nickal3 / 621 / 311 / 22

Bo Nickal

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights6

Cody Brundage

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights14