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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Blagoy Ivanov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1467

Elo1506

Blagoy IvanovvsMarcos Rogerio de LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 7, 2022Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Blagoy Ivanov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBlagoy Ivanov: Well-roundedvsMarcos Rogerio de Lima: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Blagoy Ivanov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcos Rogerio de Lima at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Blagoy Ivanov enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Blagoy Ivanov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Blagoy Ivanov

Red Corner

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1467

Elo

1506

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Blagoy IvanovL4 streak

oldest →

vs Tai Tuivasa · Jun 19

vs Derrick Lewis · Nov 19

vs Augusto Sakai · May 20

vs Marcin Tybura · Feb 23

vs Alexandr Romanov · Jul 23

latest

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

oldest →

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Nov 21

SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 23

KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Blagoy IvanovMetricMarcos Rogerio de Lima

3.25

Strikes / min

3.70

4.20

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

53%

Strike defense

51%

0.69

TDs / 15 min

1.40

61%

Takedown defense

59%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.95Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Blagoy IvanovMarcos Rogerio de Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Blagoy Ivanov(8 fights)Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -39.5|Blue +39.5

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +532.0|Blue -532.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Blagoy IvanovTargetMarcos Rogerio de Lima

By target zone

45% acc · 85%

Head

43% acc · 68%

90% acc · 15%

Body

90% acc · 26%

Leg

67% acc · 6%

By position

46% acc · 87%

Distance

50% acc · 85%

80% acc · 13%

Clinch

56% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Blagoy Ivanov rounds

even

Marcos Rogerio de Lima rounds

Round 1Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:32

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Blagoy Ivanov edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control2:09

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:11

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:47Control

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 128

Sig Strikes

68 / 133

46.7%

Sig Str %

51.3%

75 / 142

Total Strikes

81 / 147

0 / 4

TDs

1 / 5

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

3:52

Ctrl Time

2:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	25 / 45	25 / 45	0 / 0
1	Blagoy Ivanov	12 / 29	15 / 32	0 / 2
2	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	26 / 56	35 / 65	0 / 1
2	Blagoy Ivanov	30 / 54	33 / 58	0 / 2
3	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	17 / 32	21 / 37	1 / 4
3	Blagoy Ivanov	20 / 45	27 / 52	0 / 0

Blagoy Ivanov

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17