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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Nick Diaz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1373

Elo1408

BJ PennvsNick DiazUFC Prediction Result

UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · Saturday, October 29, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nick Diaz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBJ Penn: Well-roundedvsNick Diaz: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: BJ Penn wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Nick Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

BJ Penn at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Nick Diaz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Nick Diaz (53.5%).
Nick Diaz has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

BJ Penn

Red Corner

Nick Diaz

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1373

Elo

1408

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'1"

177.8 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

BJ PennL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jan 17

vs Dennis Siver · Jun 17

SUBvs Ryan Hall · Dec 18

vs Clay Guida · May 19

latest

Nick DiazL3 streak

oldest →

vs Carlos Condit · Feb 12

vs Georges St-Pierre · Mar 13

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Sep 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

BJ PennMetricNick Diaz

2.76

Strikes / min

5.71

3.20

Strikes absorbed / min

3.84

56%

Strike defense

59%

1.19

TDs / 15 min

1.28

74%

Takedown defense

60%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44Δ 2.31 — meaningful gap+1.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

BJ PennNick Diaz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

BJ Penn(10 fights)Nick Diaz(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -35.5|Blue +35.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -47.4|Blue +47.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

BJ PennTargetNick Diaz

By target zone

51% acc · 86%

Head

136

46% acc · 76%

80% acc · 14%

Body

76% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

51% acc · 81%

Distance

150

49% acc · 84%

75% acc · 17%

Clinch

68% acc · 16%

50% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

BJ Penn rounds

even

Nick Diaz rounds

Round 1BJ Penn edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control1:24

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

Round 2Nick Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

83Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:45Control

Round 3Nick Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:01

75Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 164

Sig Strikes

178 / 350

53.7%

Sig Str %

48.3%

107 / 184

Total Strikes

257 / 436

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

3:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nick Diaz	20 / 48	39 / 70	0 / 0
1	BJ Penn	33 / 48	49 / 64	1 / 1
2	Nick Diaz	83 / 144	127 / 190	0 / 0
2	BJ Penn	19 / 42	20 / 43	0 / 1
3	Nick Diaz	75 / 158	91 / 176	0 / 0
3	BJ Penn	36 / 74	38 / 77	0 / 2

BJ Penn

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Nick Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4