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Lightweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Frankie Edgar won · U-DEC R5
Elo1373
Elo1441
Frankie Edgar

BJ PennvsFrankie EdgarUFC Prediction Result

UFC 112: Invincible · Saturday, April 10, 2010Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Frankie Edgar won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupBJ Penn: Well-roundedvsFrankie Edgar: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Frankie Edgar wins(73.8%)

Actual result: Frankie Edgar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Edgar at +620 American odds

+$620 profit

$720 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • BJ Penn is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Frankie Edgar has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

BJ Penn
Red Corner
VS
Frankie Edgar
Blue Corner
-780
(89%)
Vegas Odds
+620
(14%)
1373
Elo
1441
47
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'6"
177.8 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

BJ PennL5 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14
L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jan 17
L
vs Dennis Siver · Jun 17
L
SUBvs Ryan Hall · Dec 18
L
vs Clay Guida · May 19
latest
Frankie EdgarL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20
L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21
L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21
L
KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

BJ PennMetricFrankie Edgar
2.76
Strikes / min
3.77
3.20
Strikes absorbed / min
2.82
56%
Strike defense
65%
1.19
TDs / 15 min
2.29
74%
Takedown defense
65%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes38.8 vs 46.0Takedowns1.3 vs 4.0Sub Atts0.69 vs 0.29Form0.0 vs 0.0
BJ PennFrankie Edgar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
BJ Penn(10 fights)Frankie Edgar(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -68.0|Blue +68.0
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

BJ PennTargetFrankie Edgar

By target zone

60
24% acc · 85%
Head
39
22% acc · 64%
7
70% acc · 10%
Body
14
44% acc · 23%
4
100% acc · 6%
Leg
8
38% acc · 13%

By position

63
26% acc · 89%
Distance
58
26% acc · 95%
8
53% acc · 11%
Clinch
2
22% acc · 3%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
BJ Penn rounds
2
even
1
Frankie Edgar rounds
Round 1BJ Penn edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2BJ Penn edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Even round
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Frankie Edgar edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:05Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
71 / 262
Sig Strikes
61 / 232
27.8%
Sig Str %
25.6%
72 / 263
Total Strikes
63 / 234
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 13
—
TD %
8.3%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Frankie Edgar10 / 4110 / 410 / 00
1BJ Penn18 / 4118 / 410 / 00
2Frankie Edgar6 / 446 / 440 / 30
2BJ Penn17 / 4917 / 490 / 00
3Frankie Edgar10 / 4210 / 420 / 30
3BJ Penn11 / 5711 / 570 / 00
4BJ Penn13 / 6113 / 610 / 00
4Frankie Edgar13 / 5814 / 590 / 40
5Frankie Edgar22 / 4723 / 481 / 30
5BJ Penn12 / 5413 / 550 / 00

BJ Penn

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10

Frankie Edgar

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights22