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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dennis Siver won · M-DEC R3

Elo1373

Elo1491

BJ PennvsDennis SiverUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · Sunday, June 25, 2017Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA

Official fight result

Dennis Siver won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBJ Penn: Well-roundedvsDennis Siver: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Dennis Siver wins(66.0%)

Actual result: Dennis Siver wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dennis Siver at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

BJ Penn

Red Corner

Dennis Siver

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1373

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

BJ PennL5 streak

oldest →

vs Rory MacDonald · Dec 12

KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jan 17

SUBvs Ryan Hall · Dec 18

vs Clay Guida · May 19

latest

Dennis SiverL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nam Phan · Dec 12

KOvs Cub Swanson · Jul 13

vs Charles Rosa · Oct 14

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 15

vs Tatsuya Kawajiri · Jun 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

BJ PennMetricDennis Siver

2.76

Strikes / min

3.87

3.20

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

56%

Strike defense

65%

1.19

TDs / 15 min

0.87

74%

Takedown defense

65%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap+1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

BJ PennDennis Siver

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

BJ Penn(10 fights)Dennis Siver(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -118.1|Blue +118.1

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -575.0|Blue +575.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

BJ PennTargetDennis Siver

By target zone

49% acc · 82%

Head

30% acc · 57%

83% acc · 18%

Body

31% acc · 9%

Leg

67% acc · 34%

By position

52% acc · 86%

Distance

103

37% acc · 100%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

0% acc

50% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

BJ Penn rounds

even

Dennis Siver rounds

Round 1Dennis Siver edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:12

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2BJ Penn edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control1:50

Knockdowns1

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Dennis Siver edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

56Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 107

Sig Strikes

103 / 280

52.7%

Sig Str %

35%

65 / 116

Total Strikes

120 / 300

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:02

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dennis Siver	26 / 98	29 / 102	0 / 1
1	BJ Penn	22 / 39	27 / 44	0 / 0
2	Dennis Siver	21 / 65	35 / 81	0 / 0
2	BJ Penn	21 / 41	24 / 45	0 / 0
3	Dennis Siver	56 / 117	56 / 117	0 / 0
3	BJ Penn	14 / 27	14 / 27	0 / 0

BJ Penn

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Dennis Siver

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13