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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Clay Guida won · U-DEC R3

Elo1373

Elo1490

BJ PennvsClay GuidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · Saturday, May 11, 2019Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Clay Guida won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBJ Penn: Well-roundedvsClay Guida: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: BJ Penn wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

BJ Penn at +525 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

BJ Penn

Red Corner

Clay Guida

Blue Corner

+525

(16%)

Vegas Odds

-750

(88%)

1373

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

BJ PennL5 streak

oldest →

vs Rory MacDonald · Dec 12

KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jan 17

vs Dennis Siver · Jun 17

SUBvs Ryan Hall · Dec 18

latest

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

BJ PennMetricClay Guida

2.76

Strikes / min

2.63

3.20

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

56%

Strike defense

61%

1.19

TDs / 15 min

3.10

74%

Takedown defense

66%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

BJ PennClay Guida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

BJ Penn(10 fights)Clay Guida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -117.8|Blue +117.8

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -203.0|Blue +203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

BJ PennTargetClay Guida

By target zone

34% acc · 88%

Head

31% acc · 65%

67% acc · 13%

Body

62% acc · 16%

0% acc

Leg

88% acc · 19%

By position

33% acc · 84%

Distance

36% acc · 80%

83% acc · 16%

Clinch

52% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

BJ Penn rounds

even

Clay Guida rounds

Round 1BJ Penn edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 3Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 177

Sig Strikes

80 / 208

36%

Sig Str %

38%

74 / 188

Total Strikes

113 / 242

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Clay Guida	21 / 69	21 / 69	0 / 0
1	BJ Penn	23 / 69	23 / 69	0 / 0
2	Clay Guida	27 / 68	41 / 83	1 / 2
2	BJ Penn	21 / 57	26 / 63	0 / 0
3	Clay Guida	32 / 71	51 / 90	0 / 0
3	BJ Penn	20 / 51	25 / 56	0 / 0

BJ Penn

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27