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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Billy Ray Goff won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1486
Elo1471

Billy Ray GoffvsYusaku KinoshitaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, August 26, 2023Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Billy Ray Goff won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:49

Style matchupBilly Ray Goff: Pressure fightervsYusaku Kinoshita: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Billy Ray Goff wins(76.8%)

Actual result: Billy Ray Goff wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Billy Ray Goff at +124 American odds

+$124 profit

$224 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Billy Ray Goff is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Yusaku Kinoshita has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Billy Ray Goff has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Billy Ray Goff (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Billy Ray Goff
Red Corner
VS
Yusaku Kinoshita
Blue Corner
+124
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-148
(60%)
1486
Elo
1471
28
Age
25
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Billy Ray GoffL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Trey Waters · May 24
L
SUBvs Ramiz Brahimaj · May 25
latest
Yusaku Kinoshita
oldest →
L
KOvs Adam Fugitt · Feb 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Billy Ray GoffMetricYusaku Kinoshita
7.51
Strikes / min
4.65
5.02
Strikes absorbed / min
5.12
59%
Strike defense
51%
1.75
TDs / 15 min
0.00
66%
Takedown defense
50%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.49Δ 2.96 — meaningful gap-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1481Strikes8.6 vs 4.7Takedowns2.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs -1.0
Billy Ray GoffYusaku Kinoshita

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Billy Ray Goff(3 fights)Yusaku Kinoshita(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +15.2|Blue -15.2
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red +49.5|Blue -49.5
Grappler Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Billy Ray GoffTargetYusaku Kinoshita

By target zone

13
28% acc · 33%
Head
15
31% acc · 88%
13
65% acc · 33%
Body
2
40% acc · 12%
14
78% acc · 35%
Leg
0

By position

36
46% acc · 90%
Distance
17
33% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 5%
Clinch
0
0% acc
2
40% acc · 5%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Billy Ray Goff rounds
0
even
0
Yusaku Kinoshita rounds
Round 1Billy Ray Goff edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns0
Control0:05
Knockdowns1
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
40 / 85
Sig Strikes
17 / 53
47%
Sig Str %
32%
43 / 89
Total Strikes
17 / 53
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Yusaku Kinoshita17 / 5317 / 530 / 00
1Billy Ray Goff40 / 8543 / 890 / 10

Billy Ray Goff

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3

Yusaku Kinoshita

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights2