Welterweight

3 Rounds

Trey Waters won · U-DEC R3

Elo1486

Elo1492

Billy Ray GoffvsTrey WatersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · Saturday, May 11, 2024St. Louis, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Trey Waters won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBilly Ray Goff: Pressure fightervsTrey Waters: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Trey Waters wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Trey Waters wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Trey Waters at -166 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trey Waters has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Billy Ray Goff (52.9%).
Trey Waters has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Billy Ray Goff

Red Corner

Trey Waters

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-166

(62%)

1486

Elo

1492

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'5"

182.88 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Billy Ray Goff

oldest →

KOvs Yusaku Kinoshita · Aug 23

SUBvs Ramiz Brahimaj · May 25

latest

Trey Waters

oldest →

vs Josh Quinlan · Apr 23

KOvs Sam Patterson · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Billy Ray GoffMetricTrey Waters

7.51

Strikes / min

6.39

5.02

Strikes absorbed / min

5.83

59%

Strike defense

55%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

0.40

66%

Takedown defense

85%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.49Δ 1.93 — meaningful gap+0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Billy Ray GoffTrey Waters

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Billy Ray Goff(3 fights)Trey Waters(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.0|Blue +6.0

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Billy Ray GoffTargetTrey Waters

By target zone

36% acc · 55%

Head

42% acc · 92%

55% acc · 16%

Body

54% acc · 7%

85% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

108

46% acc · 93%

Distance

42% acc · 98%

62% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Billy Ray Goff rounds

even

Trey Waters rounds

Round 1Billy Ray Goff edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns1

Control1:40

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Billy Ray Goff edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns0

Control0:23

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Billy Ray Goff edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control2:03

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

116 / 249

Sig Strikes

96 / 225

45.3%

Sig Str %

42%

129 / 265

Total Strikes

107 / 236

1 / 12

TDs

0 / 1

6.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Trey Waters	38 / 78	45 / 85	0 / 0	0
1	Billy Ray Goff	38 / 91	43 / 96	1 / 5	0
2	Trey Waters	31 / 84	32 / 85	0 / 1	1
2	Billy Ray Goff	51 / 95	54 / 98	0 / 5	0
3	Trey Waters	27 / 63	30 / 66	0 / 0	0
3	Billy Ray Goff	27 / 63	32 / 71	0 / 2	0

Billy Ray Goff

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3

Trey Waters

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3