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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Youssef Zalal won · SUB R2

Elo1493

Billy Quarantillo editorial illustration

Elo1526

Billy QuarantillovsYoussef ZalalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Saturday, March 23, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Youssef Zalal won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:50

Style matchupBilly Quarantillo: Submission grapplervsYoussef Zalal: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Billy Quarantillo wins(59.3%)

Actual result: Youssef Zalal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Billy Quarantillo at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Youssef Zalal has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Youssef Zalal (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Billy Quarantillo

Red Corner

Youssef Zalal

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1493

Elo

1526

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Billy Quarantillo

oldest →

vs Shane Burgos · Nov 21

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Dec 22

KOvs Edson Barboza · Apr 23

vs Damon Jackson · Aug 23

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 24

latest

Youssef Zalal

oldest →

SUBvs Jarno Errens · Aug 24

SUBvs Jack Shore · Nov 24

vs Calvin Kattar · Feb 25

SUBvs Josh Emmett · Oct 25

DECvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Billy QuarantilloMetricYoussef Zalal

7.44

Strikes / min

2.78

5.83

Strikes absorbed / min

1.79

42%

Strike defense

64%

1.47

TDs / 15 min

1.84

61%

Takedown defense

55%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.61evenly matched on net striking+0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Billy QuarantilloYoussef Zalal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Billy Quarantillo(10 fights)Youssef Zalal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -32.9|Blue +32.9

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -791.0|Blue +791.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Billy QuarantilloTargetYoussef Zalal

By target zone

22% acc · 80%

Head

50% acc · 55%

0% acc

Body

56% acc · 15%

33% acc · 20%

Leg

91% acc · 30%

By position

20% acc · 100%

Distance

57% acc · 85%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

83% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Billy Quarantillo rounds

even

Youssef Zalal rounds

Round 1Youssef Zalal edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:21

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:33Control

Round 2Youssef Zalal edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 50

Sig Strikes

33 / 56

20%

Sig Str %

45.5%

26 / 74

Total Strikes

37 / 62

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

2:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Youssef Zalal	31 / 49	33 / 52	1 / 1	1
1	Billy Quarantillo	8 / 40	15 / 51	0 / 0	0
2	Youssef Zalal	2 / 7	4 / 10	1 / 1	1
2	Billy Quarantillo	2 / 10	11 / 23	0 / 0	0

Billy Quarantillo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Youssef Zalal

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11