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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Billy Quarantillo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Billy Quarantillo editorial illustration

Elo1392

Billy QuarantillovsSpike CarlyleUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · Saturday, May 30, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Billy Quarantillo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBilly Quarantillo: Submission grapplervsSpike Carlyle: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Billy Quarantillo wins(51.1%)

Actual result: Billy Quarantillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Billy Quarantillo at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Billy Quarantillo has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Spike Carlyle (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Billy Quarantillo

Red Corner

Spike Carlyle

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1493

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Billy QuarantilloL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Dec 22

KOvs Edson Barboza · Apr 23

vs Damon Jackson · Aug 23

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Mar 24

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 24

latest

Spike Carlyle

oldest →

KOvs Aalon Cruz · Feb 20

vs Bill Algeo · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Billy QuarantilloMetricSpike Carlyle

7.44

Strikes / min

2.55

5.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.85

42%

Strike defense

30%

1.47

TDs / 15 min

3.34

61%

Takedown defense

57%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.61Δ 2.91 — meaningful gap-1.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Billy QuarantilloSpike Carlyle

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Billy Quarantillo(10 fights)Spike Carlyle(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +101.1|Blue -101.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Billy QuarantilloTargetSpike Carlyle

By target zone

71% acc · 86%

Head

54% acc · 92%

100% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 5%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

55% acc · 24%

Distance

75% acc · 32%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

82% acc · 65%

Ground

46% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Billy Quarantillo rounds

even

Spike Carlyle rounds

Round 1Spike Carlyle edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:04

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:52Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:13

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:07Control

Round 3Billy Quarantillo edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control2:27

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:02Control

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 66

Sig Strikes

37 / 66

75.3%

Sig Str %

61.7%

110 / 135

Total Strikes

64 / 102

2 / 3

TDs

3 / 6

66.7%

TD %

61%

Sub Att

Rev

4:44

Ctrl Time

9:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Spike Carlyle	19 / 40	34 / 56	1 / 1	0
1	Billy Quarantillo	7 / 8	32 / 36	0 / 1	0
2	Spike Carlyle	11 / 16	21 / 32	1 / 3	0
2	Billy Quarantillo	13 / 21	28 / 36	1 / 1	1
3	Spike Carlyle	7 / 10	9 / 14	1 / 2	0
3	Billy Quarantillo	29 / 37	50 / 63	1 / 1	1

Billy Quarantillo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Spike Carlyle

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3