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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Billy Quarantillo won · KO/TKO

Elo1493

Billy Quarantillo editorial illustration

Elo1496

Billy QuarantillovsKyle NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Saturday, September 12, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Billy Quarantillo won

KO/TKO

Style matchupBilly Quarantillo: Submission grapplervsKyle Nelson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Billy Quarantillo wins(78.2%)

Actual result: Billy Quarantillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Billy Quarantillo at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Billy Quarantillo is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Kyle Nelson has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Kyle Nelson has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Billy Quarantillo

Red Corner

Kyle Nelson

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1493

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Billy QuarantilloL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Dec 22

KOvs Edson Barboza · Apr 23

vs Damon Jackson · Aug 23

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Mar 24

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 24

latest

Kyle Nelson

oldest →

vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23

KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24

KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Billy QuarantilloMetricKyle Nelson

7.44

Strikes / min

3.60

5.83

Strikes absorbed / min

4.58

42%

Strike defense

53%

1.47

TDs / 15 min

1.18

61%

Takedown defense

66%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.61Δ 2.59 — meaningful gap-0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Billy QuarantilloKyle Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Billy Quarantillo(10 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.8|Blue +2.8

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -252.0|Blue +252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Billy QuarantilloTargetKyle Nelson

By target zone

44% acc · 66%

Head

44% acc · 71%

71% acc · 19%

Body

65% acc · 23%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

51% acc · 87%

Distance

45% acc · 77%

77% acc · 13%

Clinch

63% acc · 18%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Billy Quarantillo rounds

even

Kyle Nelson rounds

Round 1Billy Quarantillo edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control0:44

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:22Control

Round 2Billy Quarantillo edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns1

Control2:42

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Billy Quarantillo edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 150

Sig Strikes

56 / 114

55%

Sig Str %

65.3%

112 / 185

Total Strikes

62 / 120

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 4

60%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:28

Ctrl Time

1:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kyle Nelson	25 / 59	28 / 62	0 / 2
1	Billy Quarantillo	33 / 60	58 / 87	1 / 1
2	Kyle Nelson	29 / 53	32 / 56	0 / 2
2	Billy Quarantillo	43 / 85	51 / 93	1 / 5
3	Kyle Nelson	2 / 2	2 / 2	0 / 0
3	Billy Quarantillo	3 / 5	3 / 5	0 / 0

Billy Quarantillo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Kyle Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11