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3 Rounds

Billy Quarantillo won · SUB R2

Elo1493

Billy Quarantillo editorial illustration

Elo1394

Billy QuarantillovsJacob KilburnUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · Saturday, December 7, 2019Washington, DC, USA

Official fight result

Billy Quarantillo won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:18

Model Prediction: Billy Quarantillo wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Billy Quarantillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Billy Quarantillo at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Billy Quarantillo has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Billy Quarantillo

Red Corner

Jacob Kilburn

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1493

Elo

1394

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Billy QuarantilloL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Dec 22

KOvs Edson Barboza · Apr 23

vs Damon Jackson · Aug 23

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Mar 24

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 24

latest

Jacob Kilburn

oldest →

vs Austin Lingo · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Billy QuarantilloMetricJacob Kilburn

7.44

Strikes / min

2.56

5.83

Strikes absorbed / min

6.78

42%

Strike defense

35%

1.47

TDs / 15 min

0.51

61%

Takedown defense

20%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.61Δ 5.83 — meaningful gap-4.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Billy QuarantilloJacob Kilburn

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Billy Quarantillo(10 fights)Jacob Kilburn(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +98.9|Blue -98.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Billy QuarantilloTargetJacob Kilburn

By target zone

85% acc · 85%

Head

0% acc

90% acc · 12%

Body

75% acc · 100%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

100% acc · 3%

Distance

40% acc · 67%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

85% acc · 92%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Billy Quarantillo rounds

even

Jacob Kilburn rounds

Round 1Billy Quarantillo edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns1

Control4:15

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Billy Quarantillo edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control3:09

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 86

Sig Strikes

3 / 6

86%

Sig Str %

50%

139 / 165

Total Strikes

6 / 9

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:24

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jacob Kilburn	2 / 4	5 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Billy Quarantillo	38 / 41	86 / 98	1 / 1	3
2	Jacob Kilburn	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0
2	Billy Quarantillo	36 / 45	53 / 67	0 / 0	2

Billy Quarantillo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Jacob Kilburn

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2