← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Billy Quarantillo won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1493

Billy Quarantillo editorial illustration

Elo1523

Billy QuarantillovsAlexander HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, December 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Billy Quarantillo won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:30

Style matchupBilly Quarantillo: Submission grapplervsAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Billy Quarantillo wins(66.8%)

Actual result: Billy Quarantillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Billy Quarantillo at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Hernandez has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Billy Quarantillo

Red Corner

Alexander Hernandez

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1493

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Billy QuarantilloL2 streak

oldest →

vs Shane Burgos · Nov 21

KOvs Edson Barboza · Apr 23

vs Damon Jackson · Aug 23

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Mar 24

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 24

latest

Alexander Hernandez

oldest →

vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25

KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25

KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25

DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Billy QuarantilloMetricAlexander Hernandez

7.44

Strikes / min

4.23

5.83

Strikes absorbed / min

4.45

42%

Strike defense

59%

1.47

TDs / 15 min

1.05

61%

Takedown defense

68%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.61Δ 1.83 — meaningful gap-0.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Billy QuarantilloAlexander Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Billy Quarantillo(10 fights)Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -30.0|Blue +30.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Billy QuarantilloTargetAlexander Hernandez

By target zone

50% acc · 70%

Head

47% acc · 69%

94% acc · 20%

Body

56% acc · 10%

90% acc · 10%

Leg

67% acc · 21%

By position

48% acc · 60%

Distance

46% acc · 71%

95% acc · 24%

Clinch

73% acc · 17%

70% acc · 16%

Ground

67% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Billy Quarantillo rounds

even

Alexander Hernandez rounds

Round 1Alexander Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:53Control

Round 2Billy Quarantillo edged it

Sig. strikes68

Takedowns2

Control1:20

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:15Control

Fight Stats

Totals

87 / 151

Sig Strikes

48 / 94

52.5%

Sig Str %

50%

127 / 194

Total Strikes

59 / 105

2 / 4

TDs

2 / 6

33%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:20

Ctrl Time

4:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexander Hernandez	32 / 60	38 / 66	2 / 2	1
1	Billy Quarantillo	19 / 48	45 / 74	0 / 1	0
2	Alexander Hernandez	16 / 34	21 / 39	0 / 4	0
2	Billy Quarantillo	68 / 103	82 / 120	2 / 3	0

Billy Quarantillo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights18