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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Bill Algeo won · SUB R2

Elo1498

Elo1480

Bill AlgeovsTJ BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · Saturday, April 15, 2023Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Bill Algeo won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:40

Style matchupBill Algeo: Pressure fightervsTJ Brown: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Bill Algeo wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Bill Algeo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bill Algeo at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bill Algeo has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bill Algeo

Red Corner

TJ Brown

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+168

(37%)

1498

Elo

1480

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bill AlgeoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Herbert Burns · Jul 22

vs Andre Fili · Sep 22

vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 23

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 24

KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 24

latest

TJ Brown

oldest →

vs Kai Kamaka · May 21

vs Charles Rosa · Jan 22

vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Jun 22

SUBvs Erik Silva · Dec 22

SUBvs Darren Elkins · Oct 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bill AlgeoMetricTJ Brown

5.88

Strikes / min

3.37

4.38

Strikes absorbed / min

2.89

47%

Strike defense

49%

1.03

TDs / 15 min

3.41

55%

Takedown defense

36%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.50Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bill AlgeoTJ Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bill Algeo(10 fights)TJ Brown(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.2|Blue -17.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bill AlgeoTargetTJ Brown

By target zone

54% acc · 69%

Head

44% acc · 74%

46% acc · 9%

Body

89% acc · 17%

88% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

51% acc · 75%

Distance

43% acc · 72%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

87% acc · 28%

100% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bill Algeo rounds

even

TJ Brown rounds

Round 1Bill Algeo edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns1

Control1:03

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Bill Algeo edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:39

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:20Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 110

Sig Strikes

46 / 91

64%

Sig Str %

50%

77 / 123

Total Strikes

49 / 94

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:42

Ctrl Time

0:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	TJ Brown	39 / 77	42 / 80	0 / 0	0
1	Bill Algeo	45 / 85	48 / 88	1 / 1	0
2	TJ Brown	7 / 14	7 / 14	1 / 2	0
2	Bill Algeo	19 / 25	29 / 35	0 / 0	1

Bill Algeo

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

TJ Brown

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8